The Grasshopper

[Mrbinky]

This thread reminds me of Nickleback hate.

I cannot speak for the others, but I don't "hate" them. If they tell us clearly what's going on, and what changes, if any, they made to the GH after their initial reviews and videos were posted, then there would be no need for further worried speculation.

We might not like what we hear, and some of us might cancel our pre-orders. But that's our right. Not because we are "haters", but because we are self-interested consumers. And there's nothing wrong with that.

 

[Kalessin]

I don't hate them, and I'm still pretty excited for my Grasshopper, I just wish they would be more open about their process.

 

[syrupy]

Speculation alert (but even fuzzy numbers tell tales):

30 heaters a week sound strange to my ears.


If they manufacture 50 weeks out of the year, that's only 1500 units annually. If we assume a sale price of around $150 (somewhere between the SS and TI models), that's a gross annual income of around 225k. If we assume a 25% profit margin, it's only about 56 thousand profit per year. And that's not a limit of how successful sales are, but their production max under current info provided by GH.

You can run these calculations with higher profit margins, but this isn't a software company, the cost of making tangible goods are quite high. Even 25% profit sounds unrealistic if the heater costs them over $40.

So, based on these rough numbers, I have trouble seeing a long term success plan that would indicate a long existence in order to be able to back warranty claims. Personally I hate to see long term warranties from new companies, because it looks like a hail mary pass to me.

I'm fine being cast as a naysayer, just trying to temper the enthusiasm in case expectations have to fall later. Nothing would make me happier than if these people hit a home run with the GH. But the numbers, they do concern me.

 

[vapebuddy13]

So I love how information can be twisted into this horrific outlook and prediction.

The update with the heater issue was "They proceeded to tell us that they would only be able to deliver 30 parts per week at a revised cost of $40ea in the near-term. " Which they said was really bad news so they went immediately and figured out a solution to get to near original #'s... so this is going to be a bit of assuming but that being really bad news to me says the parts were not really all that close to costing $40 originally nor close to only 30 parts a week. So getting back to near original #'s means its not costing them $40 each and they should be getting more than 30 made a week so idk why we are talking as if that is the case... Second even if it were, notice the words near-term... that would indicate in the long run the #'s would change and that would be a temporary situation with pricing and production, but again, they said(claimed) to have solved the issue to near original #'s.
now WTF WHY DONT THEY HAVE A BUNCH OF HEATERS THEN?!?! well maybe I'm crazy but idk why any company would have a manufacturer ship the heaters as they are made in small batches... that would be pretty pricey IMO. I would think they would ship a first small batch to get started and then wait until they had a bit of a larger shipment to really get some work in.

my

 

[hippogriff]

Ok, I'll throw my worthless into this and say I believe that heaters are going to be a problem, I do not think they will change the design and not deliver on expected performance, the big problem will be low manufacturing throughput extending delivery timeframes. I truly hope they are using "Lean Manufacturing" principles in their assembly design.

This thread is so morbidly fun, like a game within a game. It's the Game of Vapes. When you play the game of vapes you either vape or you die.

Yup, this is fascinating - sounded like the $40/heater problem was fixed, and a trickle is something, so most of the mystery left is whether they'll survive the heaters getting delivered. Noteable that all this time, when implying they could start production any moment, they never had the parts they needed, it was always speculation that their suppliers would come through quickly, or dogged focus on the "will it work?" tech side of things, or something. To be clear, I'm definitely rooting for the Grasshopper team, also noting the outcome will be a result of their choices. Pass the popcorn!

 

[hi_there]

A trickle of heaters sound pretty bad to me when you have thousands of orders to fulfill. Even 200 heaters a week would mean orders being seriously delayed?

 

[johnnyCanuck]

I was wondering if anyone has an idea of how difficult it'd be to find more than one manufacturer to produce the heating units?

If it's possible, and this vape is what a huge number of ppl are looking for, future sales won't be a problem and would solve the "Trickle" dilemma

 

[hi_there]

Yes, I am surprised they are having problems, between funding orders and pre-orders you would think a manufacturing company would jump on-board and want to impress them for future orders. Maybe they should have went with China for the heaters??

 

[vapebuddy13]

its also possible the contract signed in the beginning included stuff about only using that manufacturer for the heaters and similar with other parts while in the planning stage. Hard to speculate about why they are currently doing what they are with production without knowing the legal side of what they signed with who

 

[Delta3DStudios]

I fucking love this thread. It's worth the $150 I'm in for to watch this thread evolve every day

We've got about 2 days left until the next update. Let's see what bad news they have for us at that time.

 

[syrupy]

That's what we're doing, entertaining ourselves until reality shows up.

 

[Shrike]

Fuck reality...overrated...

 

[hippogriff]

I fucking love this thread. It's worth the $150 I'm in for to watch this thread evolve every day

We've got about 2 days left until the next update. Let's see what bad news they have for us at that time.

For the sake of my own expectations, I predict the next update will boil down to "we are getting parts in and hope to begin shipping soon", IOW I'm predicting the update will be the same as the last 10 updates, will continue this way even if they manage enuf parts to begin assembly and even start deliveries, just vaguely positive but never clearly overcoming supply issues till "Sorry, we're done, thanks for the support." Then they'll get bought out for pennies, and a couple years from now we can place new orders for the $200 rebranded version! Ok negativity expressed, back to patience, plus hope the next update is "All parts are in our hands or at least being made quickly in large numbers, we even have backer ship dates!"

 

[Delta3DStudios]

Update from Trevor (emailed to ask about the heaters and electronics, and to see if I was still going to see my late preorder in May). Here was his response:

Thanks for contacting me. We have some stock of every part and are using those parts to build Grasshoppers. Your order is scheduled for late May and I hope to get it to you by then. It is possible we could have some delays as we ramp up assembly. We will see what challenges come with that. I keep you updated and you can always reach me here for more information.
​

Sounds like some of the IGG backers may start seeing their vapes soon!

 

[Krazzykid]

Update from Trevor (emailed to ask about the heaters and electronics, and to see if I was still going to see my late preorder in May). Here was his response:

Thanks for contacting me. We have some stock of every part and are using those parts to build Grasshoppers. Your order is scheduled for late May and I hope to get it to you by then. It is possible we could have some delays as we ramp up assembly. We will see what challenges come with that. I keep you updated and you can always reach me here for more information.
​

Sounds like some of the IGG backers may start seeing their vapes soon!

We should know soon enough if people start reporting shipping notifications. If we don't get any reports soon then somethings not right.

According to the perks claimed on the IGG campaign, they have to make 2744 hoppers before getting to the pre-orders. They need to average at least 549(rounded) units per week just to get through the original backers by the end of May.

I am remaining optimistic, but that a huge improvement from the cryptic mood of their recent updates. 549 is nowhere near the 30 per week they were quoted for heaters before they resolved the issue.

Makes me wonder what exactly they did to ramp up heater production so drastically. Or perhaps GH already had more heaters on hand than they were implying?

 

[Kalessin]

I don't know much about 3d printing, is the process such that, after making enough the manufacturer would get better and faster at producing the heaters, or once they have the schematics for the design it's pretty much automated?

 

[Delta3DStudios]

According to the perks claimed on the IGG campaign, they have to make 2744 hoppers before getting to the pre-orders. They need to average at least 549(rounded) units per week just to get through the original backers by the end of May.

I am remaining optimistic, but that a huge improvement from the cryptic mood of their recent updates. 549 is nowhere near the 30 per week they were quoted for heaters before they resolved the issue.

Makes me wonder what exactly they did to ramp up heater production so drastically. Or perhaps GH already had more heaters on hand than they were implying?

You're right! I preordered my GH in March 2015, way after the IGG ended. I'm actually amazed he still thinks he can ship mine in late May. Given how far off their estimates were to begin with, I'm guessing I'll see mine mid-september

 

[vapebuddy13]

don't say that! I would die if it were mid September lol I want mine for the summer so bad

 

[Kalessin]

I was originally hoping to get mine by my birthday in mid-May, but I know that isn't happening haha

 

[Krazzykid]

You're right! I preordered my GH in March 2015, way after the IGG ended. I'm actually amazed he still thinks he can ship mine in late May. Given how far off their estimates were to begin with, I'm guessing I'll see mine mid-september

I still have faith that they will deliver, just throwing out the facts as they are. Not trying to burst any bubbles or cast doubt.

If what Trevor told you is true, and remains true, I would assume we should see some shipping notifications before the next update. Fingers crossed!

 

[syrupy]

"We have some stock of every part."

You're right! I preordered my GH in March 2015, way after the IGG ended. I'm actually amazed he still thinks he can ship mine in late May. Given how far off their estimates were to begin with, I'm guessing I'll see mine mid-september

So he's implying that 3000 units can be assembled in a month as a possible scenario?

 

[Krazzykid]

"We have some stock of every part."

So he's implying that 3000 units can be assembled in a month as a possible scenario?

Give or take, yes.

Update is coming in a few days. At the production rate Trevor's implying, we certainly "should" see some shipping notification reports before then. That is assuming they still plan to basically ship in daily lots as they implied earlier.

 

[DirtD1V3R]

I really don't want to be a Debbie downer, so I'll be a realist Rachel. For me personally, I would much rather control my expectations because I remember them saying in the past (February?) that they were close to shipping. I really hope that trevor is being a realist in his expectations of their abilities to get out GHs. I am really rooting for them, I hope my doubt will have been for not. And I hope my estimated ship date of April is only extended to May.

 

[lovinlivinlife]

I was the fourth early bird backer. (Wanted to be first but three of you beat me to it..... who was it? )

No shipping notice yet!

I wonder how many Hoppers are going out to "larger interests" prior it the igg backers getting ours?

Either way I will continually refresh my order status and when (if) I get a shipping notice I will let everyone know......



Nothing yet.......



Still nothing.............



Nope ..................................

 

[Shrike]

...shipping notices...