The 2016 Presidential Candidates Thread

[grokit]

As Trump's Odds Of Victory Rise, Financial Markets Get Nervous

When Hillary Clinton appeared to be winning the Sept. 26 debate with Donald Trump at Hofstra University, stock futures rose and so did oil prices, a report says.

When news broke Friday that the FBI had discovered emails that might be pertinent to its investigation of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, stock prices suddenly took a tumble.

The decline can be explained by an unusual development in this year's long, contentious presidential campaign, says Eric Zitzewitz, a professor of economics at Dartmouth College.

For the first time in history, the financial markets seem to prefer the Democratic candidate for president over the Republican, and anything that lessens her chances of victory is likely to hurt asset prices, according to a paper written by Zitzewitz and Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan.

"This election is going to be a very big deal economically. That's what we're finding," Zitzewitz said in an interview with NPR...

 

[AgentofChaos]

 

[ataxian]

I study GEOPOLITICS, however I have not solution's?

Everybody must get STONED! (Bob DYLAN)

Beyond MEDICATION................................
We were almost CIVILIZED?

 

[thisperson]

That's a ne'er do well train of thought and I shan't listen. We all know that if we voted in the right leaders, we could progress in matters of democracy. Take for example CA's leaders. If Jerry Brown had signed into law a bill that would have permitted ranked-choice voting we would all have more power. But instead he wants to protect his party interests and says signing the bill into law would create confusion among voters.

Fuck that. We were one step closer to ranked choice voting as a union and my fucking governor didn't sign it. Where CA leads the union follows...at least that's what I've seen/think.

So with all the more care will I vote for leaders. And everyone should do so as well. To be an uninformed voter would be just as bad if not more catastrophic than not voting.

If we as a people spread and share ideas, weed out the ideas that are unpopular and put the good ones up to vote, you would realize we have power.

Oh wait, we already do that, it's called propositions. And it's one of the things I find people who don't vote don't know about. Or don't want to think of, but that's on them. Every citizen is offered a chance at the decision making table with their vote and activism.

I learned this in a nations role playing game I used to play online as a teenager, when it comes to decisions and democracy, it's about sharing your opinion when we all come to the table, trying your hardest to convince others, and then shutting the fuck up and going through with it once we've all decided.

I had to try.

 

[His_Highness]

REMINDER: OBAMA IS ON REAL TIME WITH BILL MAHER TONIGHT!!!!!!!!

 

[macbill]

Donald married a former illegal worker.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Melania Trump was paid for 10 modeling jobs in the United States worth $20,056 that occurred in the seven weeks before she had legal permission to work in the country, according to detailed accounting ledgers, contracts and related documents from 20 years ago provided to The Associated Press.

 

[grokit]

Here is the latest Pollster.com topline. They are incredibly bullish on Hillary winning the presidency as of just a minute ago, also on the Senate switching hands:

Trump is dropping like a rock. Now down to a 1.3% chance of winning, while Hillary Clinton has surged all the way to 98.6%. Both of these measures are new highs and lows for Pollster.com Projections (for Hillary and Trump, respectively.)

When you vote, you don’t elect the president: You tell your state’s electoral-college electors how to vote. In most states, all electors vote with the state’s popular opinion. If 51 percent of voters in California choose Hillary Clinton, all 55 of California’s electors will vote for Clinton — and none will vote for Donald Trump.

(Historically, a few so-called faithless electors have voted against popular opinion. They never changed the outcome of an election, so we don’t model them.)

We simulated a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using our state-by-state averages. In 9.9 million simulations, Hillary Clinton ended up with at least 270 electoral votes. Therefore, we say Clinton has a 98.6 percent chance of becoming president.

much more:
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...te-strongly-out-of-GOP-chance-Wang-now-at-100

 

[His_Highness]

Heading out with the family this afternoon to do the early vote. I wanted to wait till Nov. 8th to experience, in person, what I expect will be historical and hysterical but.... in the spirit of the election..... I was out voted.

 

[t-dub]

I sent my ballot in a week ago, I really like voting by mail, but I felt like I needed to shower with muriatic acid afterwards . ...

 

[His_Highness]

I sent my ballot in a week ago, I really like voting by mail, but I felt like I needed to shower with muriatic acid afterwards . ...

Agreed....I'm wondering how I'm going to be able work the #2 pencil and hold the ballot .... while holding my nose

 

[CarolKing]

A Latino And Hispanic Blue Wave Is Swamping Trump In Nevada (TWEETS)

NOVEMBER 5TH, 2016


With ABC’s national tracking poll showing a full rebound in enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton, something big is happening in early voting states with substantial Latino and Hispanic populations. One such state may prove to be the decisive edge in the Electoral College for Hillary Clinton.

According to Jon Ralston, the recognized dean of Nevada political news, high turnout in Clark County is taking the state off the table for reality show star-turned-Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Yesterday morning, we learned that Clinton seems to enjoy a decisive advantage with the nation’s largest minority demographic. In a pre-noon press conference with reporters, the polling group Latino Decisions said they expect historic turnout. According to their projections, “between 13.1 million and 14.7 million Latinos will vote on or before Tuesday– a major increase from 2012 numbers when the group estimated 11.2 million voted.”

Latino Decisions is estimating– using their own turnout predictor– that Clinton is on track to capture 79 percent of the Latino vote. Trump, on the other hand, is expected to garner only 18 percent (almost 10 points down from Romney’s 27 percent performance.)

Also a very good jobs report just out, but Trump will say that they made it up. The above article is good news. Maybe women and hispanics will save the day. Hopefully black folks will realize that Trumps ideas aren't going to help them. Trump is for stop and frisk laws if someone doesn't look 100% white and maybe a little shady according to them. Sounds like a racist law to me.

Edit
This does make me angry that in North Carolina today people have to wait for 5 hours to vote. Absolutely unacceptable.
So important the Bernie folks get out and vote, vote for Hillary. We don't want to end up with a dictator as a president. Please don't vote conscious in this election. It's just too crucial.

 

[His_Highness]

@CarolKing - I'm hearing the same about significant increases in Latino voter rates in Florida

I'm also hearing that if Trump loses Florida he's done.

 

[Bdubbdiblets]

I have used significantly more herbage than usual in the last week...

I also have significantly less finger nails than I did a week ago..

I think the stress is getting to me..

I miss the Obama's already. Shucks....a part of me dare say I miss the bush's considering the potential mess to come..

 

[cybrguy]

Prior to the comment about the Bush's you had a like comin...

I have noticed a measurable increase of late...

And my standard habit of leaving a news channel running on the tube in the background has been partially curtailed...

 

[Bdubbdiblets]

Prior to the comment about the Bush's you had a like comin...
..

Haha! I questioned the comment myself!! I felt a lil dirty after posting..

 

[macbill]

FROM THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECRETARIES OF STATE (NASS)

State Laws Prohibiting Electioneering Activities Within a Certain Distance of the Polling Place

Link to download PDF file listing each state's law

 

[Tranquility]

Nevada (tied):
http://www.lasvegasnow.com/news/nvelection-8-news-now-poll-finds-clinton-trump-races-tied

Question 1: How likely are you to vote in the November Presidential and U.S. Senate elections?

CURRENT PREVIOUS POLL

• Very Likely 45% 79%
• Already early voted 42% N/A
• Somewhat Likely 1% 4%
• Unlikely (Call Terminated) 9% 12%
• Undecided (Call Terminated) 3% 5%

Question 2: If the race for President were held today between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, which candidate would you support?

CURRENT PREVIOUS

• Clinton (Rotated) 45% (Tie) 43%
• Trump (Rotated) 45% (Tie) 41%
• Johnson 4% 4%
• None of the above 3% 3%
• Undecided (Not read) 4% 9%

Question 3: (Only if "undecided" is selected for the previous question) Given that you are undecided in the Presidential race, which candidate are you leaning towards supporting?

CURRENT

Clinton (Rotated) 45% (Tie)
Trump (Rotated) 45% (Tie)
Johnson 4%
None of the above 3%
Undecided (Not read) 3%
Polling Methodlogy

For this poll, a sample of likely households for a live operator poll was chosen from the population registered to vote in the state of Nevada, and there were 600 completed responses to 10 poll questions. 66% of the phone numbers were landlines and 34% of the phone numbers were cell phones.
The survey was conducted October 28-November 1. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 4.0%. The demographic breakdown of the respondents was 66-16-6% white/Hispanic/black (2% were Asian and 11% were “other”), while the party registration of respondents was 42-38% Democratic/Republican (20% Independents). The geographic breakdown of the respondents was as follows: 21% from the 1st Congressional District, 11% from the 2nd Congressional District (“Cow Counties”), 17% from the 2nd Congressional District (Washoe County), 26% from the 3rd Congressional District, 22% from the 4th Congressional District (Clark County), and 3% from the 4th Congressional District (“Cow Counties”) (The explanation of the boundaries of these regions is graphically depicted in Exhibit A at the end of the poll analysis).

Colorado (Tied):
http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/02/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-in-colorado-new-poll-shows/

Michigan (Tied):
http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/04/exclusive-poll-trump-clinton-tied-in-michigan/

New Hampshire (Tied):
https://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE-NH-GENERAL-20161103_tcm18-264691.pdf

Pennsylvania (Tied):
http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll--11-2-3#PresidentTIE

There are polls, of course, that differ. Anything anyone is giving us this close to the actual count has been massaged in a way to predict outcome. I remember times I've used a quote to my teams when coming up against another with a better reputation, "If who people thought would win mattered, why bother playing the game?"


Edit for the junkies:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html

You can take a look at a lot of polls and make your own calls for each state and see how that works in the electoral college.

 

[TeeJay1952]

I done watching till Tuesday.
I am going to take off the 20 blocks I put on people. It is Amnesty Day! (for a while)

 

[grokit]

As the 2016 election comes to a close, let's take a look at why the polls could be off

One hazard that may be plaguing pollsters recently is called “differential partisan response.” What that means is that at various points during a campaign, supporters for one candidate are more likely to answer polls than the other candidate’s supporters, or are more likely to claim they are undecided—even if voters haven't changed their minds about who they’re voting for or whether they’ll actually vote. This happens when supporters of one candidate feel discouraged: They still plan to vote the same way, but they’re just less apt to want to be polled when their spirits are lower.

While pollsters will of course try to account for many of these factors, 2012 and 2014 polling misfires show they were already struggling, even before 2016 and Donald Trump introduced even more opportunities for error. Thus far, we do not have a solid basis to assume the polls are systematically biased in favor of one party or the other, but we shouldn’t be surprised if that turns out to be the case once the results are in.



My :
The polls are as polarized as the peeps, I'm sure we can find whatever poll suits our disposition.
Mosey on over to drudge report, and yes many swing states are virtually tied.
But bankrupt puerto ricans are flipping florida, and that will make all of the difference.
It would be nice if they would jettison rubio while they're at it, but that's more of a longshot.
However our buddy nate silver continues to forecast the state for drumpf...

From the bbc:

• Florida is the largest swing state and is seen as a must-win for Mr Trump.
• The Republican candidate will later fly to North Carolina before heading west to Nevada.
• Opinion polls in recent days have suggested Mr Trump is gaining support but he still remains behind Mrs Clinton in most surveys.
• In Florida, the contest appears to be tight. Real Clear Politics' poll average puts the Democratic candidate ahead, but poll analysis website FiveThirtyEight says Mr Trump has a 52.6% chance of winning the state.
• US President Barack Obama won Florida in 2012 by a margin of just 0.9% over Republican Mitt Romney.

Imo it all depends on voter turnout and it's ugly cousin, voter suppression

Killary's home state ballot has an interesting typo:

Remember they never thought brexit would happen

 

[His_Highness]

Been living here for more than a decade......first time I've seen lines for voting. Mentioned to one of the volunteers about the line and she said.....never seen a turnout like this and it was way up during the week as well.

Saw one gentlemen on the border line of where you can still hold placards up and such.....he was under a canopy with a life size cardboard cutout of Trump. There was a small line waiting to take a picture with it.

 

[jay87]

I feel as though all this "polling" that is done is harmful to the election process. Our entire election process assumes that statistical generalizations of voting will represent the actual election in reality. Unofficial polls with leading questions are often used as propaganda to push whatever agenda the polling institution chooses.

Statistical analysis is always done with the caveat of "It should be close but we're not 100% sure..."

I also think about the fact that the vast majority of people who are trying to go out into these unofficial polls are greatly partisan and are not representative of the average population.

That's before you add in all the techniques any polling institution can use to influence the results of their poll.


ex. "Do you think Hillary Clinton who has killed babies and loves Al Qaeda would be a good president, or do you think Donald Trump a rich man with great character who wants to make America great again would be better?"

ex. "Polls show that 80% of voters believe Donald Trump would be a better president than Hillary Clinton"


That's when I realize that our entire system for presidential candidates is completely dependent on polling and that's one reason why I think it's impossible for any non-republican or non-democrat candidate to be elected president. The candidates backed by major parties will always have more people preemptively voting in these polls and therefore major party candidates will always have a head start at being considered the "leading" candidate.


I'd bet you money that if Bernie was on the ballot instead of Hillary right now he'd poll to have more support and higher approval than Hillary does now. Even though the polls and "super delegates" that were used to disqualify Bernie showed he had much less support than Hillary when they were taken before party nominations.

I have very little belief in the vast majority of these polls as the "result" of the poll that they put in the headline can be made completely invalid even just by considering their margin of error.

 

[grokit]

I will say this:
Obama shamed me during his maher interview last night, more than all you peeps put together

Our current potus can be quite persuasive, and yes even likable we could hang out

But I had no to wash off after I voted, which works for me.

Granted my objections aren't the standard, as hardly anybody seems to care about war crimes anymore. But I will say it again, drumpf is indeed our only chance not to have a third war-criminal president in a row. Of course it is quite the gamble with him, because he represents a wild-card unlike any in modern presidential politics. Does he have aspirations to be a yuuuge war criminal, that is the trillion-dollar question.


edit:
Maher really went off on the fbi's collusion/"coup" with the russkies, which I thought was a bit
But at least he went off on the media as well, even if he didn't mention their collusion with the dnc.

 

[GetLeft]

I gotta be honest folks I never thought this thread would see the election. Hats off.

But I'm here to say it's over. Someone in the know regarding the results of the local high school mock-election let it be known that the DT wins by landslide: 55%-45%. In large part due to a high number of votes going to the independents, who got a total of 10% - no shit!

EDIT. Wait a minute. That's some funky math. Highschoolers...

 

[Bdubbdiblets]

Election Day preparedness kit, first and foremost:

 

[neverforget711]

I will say this:
Obama shamed me during his maher interview last night, more than all you peeps put together

Our current potus can be quite persuasive, and yes even likable we could hang out

But I had no to wash off of me after I voted, which works for me.

Granted my objections aren't the standard, as hardly anybody seems to care about war crimes anymore. But I will say it again, drumpf is indeed our only chance not to have a third war-criminal president in a row. Of course it is quite the gamble with him, because he represents a wild-card unlike any in modern presidential politics. Does he have aspirations to be a yuuuge war criminal, that is the trillion-dollar question.


edit:
Maher really went off on the fbi's collusion/"coup" with the russkies, which I thought was a bit
But at least he went off on the media as well, even if he didn't mention their collusion with the dnc.

He doesn't want America to be world police for free, that is a risk-averse policy. It goes without saying he understands strongmen are gonna strong and that we really shouldn't be breaking military dictatorships to see if guns and soldiers stay put.

I also want to reiterate, wildcard Trump should be your choice if all you want is the least interference for drug reform. He's as straight-edged as the designated driver, but remains cosmopolitan. I actually think having a sobered person pitch the idea would prime people for it.