Here's a wrench in the conversation: How does does the tightness of the pack influence convection/conduction? Weed is fluffy and full of air. The tighter you pack it, the less air.
If I pack very loose, I'm able to go past the click more and not risk combustion. Some of this is because the looser pack allows more airflow, which cools the bowl quicker. Another element is that with a tighter pack, there is more contact between the bud and the walls of the tip. This means that more bud is being heated directly, and less air is being heated. Generally when we think of convection, we think of the mass of incoming air being heated before it contacts the herb. But what about local convection which happens right at the boundary layer, inside of the tip. I think this is something that we often overlook, since weed is not a solid mass, but rather a fluffy mix, full of air.
I would argue this is probably a greater source of convection in comparison to the air that is heated as it travels through the helical grooves. Also, with a loose pack, the bud moves around when you take a hit, leading to less direct contact with the walls.
This is probably something which could use it's own thread though.