COVID-19 News

[florduh]

The sort of cheap rapid tests Michael Mina proposes wouldn't necessarily replace professionally administered tests. And they aren't perfectly accurate. But they are good at discovering people who are the most contagious, so they can isolate.

 

[Tranquility]

@Tranquility – It's very easy to just question one parameter in order to argue. But this parameter is out of question. We know that symptomless people can spread the virus. We know that even people with strong symptoms are most infectious *before* those symptoms occur.

Of course, that is irrelevant to the issue.

Read the article.

 

[Siebter]

Read the article.

You live on a bit of another planet, huh?

 

[Tranquility]

You live on a bit of another planet, huh?

Why do you insist on replying when it is clear you have no idea what the article contains?

 

[Siebter]

I don't need to know what one article contains. I need to know what happens around us, and you do too.

Oh boy.

 

[vtac]

We've done pretty well keeping this thread civil. Let's keep that going please.

Stick to the science. Please leave personal digs out of this.

 

[florduh]

There have been stories going around about COVID damaging patients' hearts. While it's true other viral infections like influenza can damage heart tissues, it's very rare. But in one study, the CDC found 80% of younger, non-hospitalized COVID patients showed signs of heart damage.

Diseases like influenza cause heart damage indirectly via general inflammation in the body. A new study suggests that COVID attacks heart tissue directly, including cardiac stem cells. If this is true, it would be bad news. Heart tissue tends to regenerate constantly. Damaged stem cells could cause numerous issues down the road.

SARS-CoV-2 infects human pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes, impairing electrical and mechanical function
Global health has been threatened by the COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Although considered primarily a respiratory infection, many COVID-19 patients also suffer severe cardiovascular disease. Improving patient care critically relies on understanding if cardiovascular pathology is caused directly by viral infection of cardiac cells or indirectly via systemic inflammation and/or coagulation abnormalities....

 

[Tranquility]

The science says, current testing is not working in the U.S. The testing we mostly do now is causing too many false positives even though that would not be the correct term because what "positive" means is in dispute.

If by "positive" one means a person with active virus that can generally transmit that virus to others, then there are a lot of false positives. If by "positive" one means a person has some level of the virus that can be tested, then there are a lot of people who are testing hot.

For those not paying attention, that means that we need to shift testing from what we're doing now to a more rapid test that will be better aligned with transmission theory so we can hope to track and trace someday rather than run around chasing rainbows and unicorns.

Science!

Some would rather complain about how bad we are doing than look for ways to improve. "Do more testing" is a complaint that helps nothing and might cause more problems. It is only when you understand the issues in this particular scenario that you can judge as to if modifications like getting a 150 million rapid tests in the pipeline will help.

Knowing the difference between current tests and the proposed rapid tests guides people in understanding which is more important and what issues each resolves so that an informed public can make intelligent choices.

 

[Summer]

http://instagr.am/p/CEkgceQhgjd/

 

[Tranquility]

In a large study that runs a little counter to either narrative on hydroxycloriquine, it works on its own (without zinc and antibiotic):
Low-dose Hydroxychloroquine Therapy and Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: A Nationwide Observational Study of 8075 Participants
Results
Of 8075 patients with complete discharge data on 24th of May and diagnosed before the 1st of May, 4542 received HCQ in monotherapy and 3533 were in the no-HCQ group. Death was reported in 804/4542 (17.7%) and 957/3533 (27.1%), respectively. In the multivariable analysis, the mortality was lower in the HCQ group compared to the no-HCQ group (adjusted hazard ratio

---

0.684, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.617–0.758). Compared to the no-HCQ group, mortality in the HCQ group was reduced both in patients diagnosed ≤ 5 days (n=3975) and > 5 days (n=3487) after symptom onset (adjusted HR 0.701, 95% CI 0.617–0.796 and adjusted HR 0.647, 95% CI 0.525–0.797, respectively).

---

For the non-Science! speakers:
COVID19 breaking news, August 28, 2020: New Belgian large-cohort study shows hydroxychloroquine significantly reduces mortality

Edit:
A supercomputer study looks at the Covid process of infection and disease:
A mechanistic model and therapeutic interventions for COVID-19 involving a RAS-mediated bradykinin storm

Non-Science!:
A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged
When Summit was done, researchers analyzed the results. It was, in the words of Dr. Daniel Jacobson, lead researcher and chief scientist for computational systems biology at Oak Ridge, a “eureka moment.” The computer had revealed a new theory about how Covid-19 impacts the body: the bradykinin hypothesis. The hypothesis provides a model that explains many aspects of Covid-19, including some of its most bizarre symptoms. It also suggests 10-plus potential treatments, many of which are already FDA approved. Jacobson’s group published their results in a paper in the journal eLife in early July.

 

[florduh]

In a large study that runs a little counter to either narrative on hydroxycloriquine, it works on its own (without zinc and antibiotic):

It also goes against the "narrative" that it should be a low dose. But we don't know it works on its own. This is an observational study. Not a randomized controlled trial. Without a RCT, you don't know why the group receiving hydroxychloroquine experienced a 10% lower mortality rate than the group not receiving it.

I posted 5 randomized control trials involving hydroxychloroquine. None of them showed any efficacy of the drug for COVID. Why? If the drug works against COVID, every one of those RCT's should've shown a clear benefit. That's how science works. It's repeatable.

The only studies showing any sort of benefit for HCQ against COVID are lower quality observational, statistical analysis types. Since higher quality RCT's exist, that's the best indication that hydroxychloroquine is probably worthless against COVID.

 

[Gunky]

Why trust all the recognized health experts on the uselessness (nay, dangerousness) of hydroxychloroquine when you can instead believe rumors and hoaxes from the internet?

 

[Tranquility]

Why trust all the recognized health experts on the uselessness (nay, dangerousness) of hydroxychloroquine when you can instead believe rumors and hoaxes from the internet?

Those Belgian bastards, putting their entire country at risk just to create a rumor and hoax on the internet. April fools day must be lit in Belgium.

Edit:
Those fools should attend the FREE MIT lectures on Covid. (Live stream every Tuesday at 11:30 ET.) That way they won't fall for it again.
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 and the Pandemic” (7.00)

I've heard the first half of the first class. While the information is not geared to a layman, if you have a pad to look things up while listening, you can generally keep up.

The syllabus for the free course:

https://biology.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/7.00_Syllabus_8.17.20.pdf

 

[florduh]

Coronavirus cases are on the rise again across more than half of the U.S.

Coronavirus cases are rising across more than half of the nation even as the outbreak slows across former hotspots in Arizona, Florida, California and Texas.

New cases are up by at least 5%, based on a seven-day average, in 26 states as of Sunday, compared with just 12 states a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. In Arizona, Florida, California and Texas, new cases are declining by at least as much, though those states still accounted for nearly 10,000 new cases combined on Sunday — or about a fourth of all new U.S. cases.

Across the nation, average new cases have climbed three out of the last five days.

Many of the recently growing outbreaks across the country are occurring in the Midwest, including Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio and the Dakotas. Those states collectively reported more than 7,400 new cases Sunday, according to data collected by Hopkins.

 

[macbill]

Florida
Man who pulled gun during mask argument at Walmart not facing charges

The 28-year-old man who pulled a gun on another customer at Walmart in July during an argument over face masks is no longer facing charges.

 

[cybrguy]

I have been out of this thread for the last couple weeks (at least) due to the troll and his dedicated feeders. Anything important I need to come back to see?

Florida
Man who pulled gun during mask argument at Walmart not facing charges
The 28-year-old man who pulled a gun on another customer at Walmart in July during an argument over face masks is no longer facing charges.

I suspect the simple answer to why there are no charges is "Florida".

 

[florduh]

Boston superspreading event seeded thousands of COVID-19 cases

Tens of thousands of coronavirus infections are likely linked to a biotech conference that took place in Boston in late February, including nearly 3% of U.S. cases and 1.7% of global cases for which genetic sequences exist, The Boston Herald reports. Following the superspreading event—a management conference at the biotech firm Biogen—researchers sequenced 772 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from across Massachusetts, revealing more than 80 unique COVID-19 introductions into the Boston area, they report in a preprint posted to medRxiv this week.

 

[macbill]

Steroids can save lives of patients with severe covid-19, earning WHO endorsement

Cheap, widely available steroid drugs reduced the number of deaths in the sickest patients with covid-19, show a trio of newly published clinical trials.
The World Health Organization, citing evidence from these and similar trials, announced Wednesday it strongly recommends doctors use the medications to combat severe or critical forms of disease caused by coronavirus infections.

 

[Tranquility]

Boston superspreading event seeded thousands of COVID-19 cases

Tens of thousands of coronavirus infections are likely linked to a biotech conference that took place in Boston in late February, including nearly 3% of U.S. cases and 1.7% of global cases for which genetic sequences exist, The Boston Herald reports. Following the superspreading event—a management conference at the biotech firm Biogen—researchers sequenced 772 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from across Massachusetts, revealing more than 80 unique COVID-19 introductions into the Boston area, they report in a preprint posted to medRxiv this week.

The irony of biotech screwing us all biologically.

For something that, in theory, SHOULD have been a superspreader event as it had lots of people with a certain rebel attitude in close quarters without masks and, I think, there was drinking involved.
OH THE HORROR! Sturgis Motorcycle Rally COVID-19 Numbers Are in and They Are Shocking

The 80th Annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally took place from August 7-16 in South Dakota. Attendance at the rally was slightly down, at 462,000, a 7.5% decrease from 2019. No doubt COVID-19 fears played a part in the attendance reduction. Perhaps those with pre-existing health conditions declined to attend.

COVID-19 panic certainly preceded the rally. Indeed, it was predicted that it would be a mass superspreader event that would result in significant illness and death. Or not. The numbers are in for the City of Sturgis, and they are quite laughable. More people died from fatal crashes during the rally than from the virus.

The City of Sturgis conducted mass COVID testing for its citizens after welcoming hundreds of thousands of visitors for the 80th annual Motorcycle Rally. Now, the city is announcing the results.​

A total of 650 people took advantage of the free testing, with 26 people testing positive for COVID-19.All of them were asymptomatic at the time of testing.​

It is unlikely there will be new positive tests related to the rally. It would also be highly unusual for symptoms to appear at this stage. The city waited 12 days before publishing the results and the most common point for symptoms to appear is between days four and five after infection.

In total, it appears, as of August 28, 12 days after the rally, a total of 196 positive tests were linked to rally attendance:...

 

[Haze Mister]

 

[florduh]

For something that, in theory, SHOULD have been a superspreader event as it had lots of people with a certain rebel attitude in close quarters without masks and, I think, there was drinking involved.

I'm betting that has something to do with the Biker Rally being a mostly outdoor, summer event. While the biotech conference was an entirely indoors, winter event.

OH THE HORROR! Sturgis Motorcycle Rally COVID-19 Numbers Are in and They Are Shocking

So, maybe the author of this blogpost should read the Boston Globe article about the February biotech superspreader event. They're calling 196 positive COVID cases at Sturgis a success. But the Boston superspreader event showed that just 100 cases eventually lead to over 100,000 cases nationwide. I wouldn't take any victory laps yet.

 

[Tranquility]

I'm betting that has something to do with the Biker Rally being a mostly outdoor, summer event. While the biotech conference was an entirely indoors, winter event.

Maybe. Have you been? The one time I went, long ago, there was a lot of time spent in bars. As a CNN interviewee said:
"I don't think people have a clue how bad it really is," Janet Sechser, a resident, said. "It's shoulder-to-shoulder people in and out the bars. Definitely not anything as far as social distancing. There's no masks or anything like that."

So, maybe the author of this blogpost should read the Boston Globe article about the February biotech superspreader event. They're calling 196 positive COVID cases at Sturgis a success. But the Boston superspreader event showed that just 100 cases eventually lead to over 100,000 cases nationwide. I wouldn't take any victory laps yet.

Ah, "cases". I'll take the lap now. Almost half a million standing shoulder to shoulder for ten days with little effect other than some non-symptomatic positive tests, seems something that should build confidence in those who don't balance risks well.

The same holds for rally attendees. I can only find confirmation of three hospitalizations at this point in the reporting. Two of the patients have confirmed discharges indicating they will fully recover. Since they had symptoms and developed them within fourteen days of the rally, contracting the virus during their travels or attendance seems likely. By way of contrast, there were four fatal crashes at the Sturgis event that killed five people.

But, Forbes agrees with you.
Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Linked To More Than 100 Infections In At Least 8 States

Funny how a headline can completely change the emotional impact of a fact.

 

[florduh]

My math was wrong. 100 asymptomatic (at least at the time) infected individuals at the Boston conference eventually lead to over 180,000 cases nationwide. Those 100 individuals were eventually responsible for 1.7% of the world's confirmed cases, and 3% of domestic confirmed cases.

 

[cybrguy]

I must say it is truly stunning to me. If clearly intelligent people can't manage to ignore a newsgroup troll, how could we as a nation possibly fight organized disinformation from professional liars and politically expedient criminal deceivers at the very pinnacle of our government.

We are good and truly fucked. No need to chase me away, I am outta here. Again.

 

[ClearBlueLou]

Current figures: 187,000+ confirmed deaths, 48,000+ new cases, 39,000+ new recoveries