COVID-19 News

[CrazyDiamond]

No I don't think we have to wear masks forever, that's silly. I agree with some of what you said, particularly about vaccines. However, I still think that if masks were worn sooner and everyone did it, we would be in a much better place today. There would have been less economic upheaval, less strain on hospitals, less sick people spreading to more, and a whole lot less deaths. Cold and flu, yes I get that, it is yearly. Covid-19 is not yearly and is a different animal...normal cold and flu doesn't spread like this. I will bow out now. Peace

 

[cybrguy]

There may well be some people who SHOULD wear a mask forever, at least whenever in crowds. If I had diabetes, for example, I might be careful all the time, but especially until there is a vaccine for covid. If I had a respiratory disease and especially if I needing to trail oxygen.

But I truly believe if 100% of the people in the country wore masks 100% of the time they were outside the home for 3 full weeks the new hospitalizations would likely stop, and after a month the deaths of people already in the hospital would likely stop. But that would take full cooperation of all people in America, and that obviously isn't going to happen. After all... freedom.

 

[CrazyDiamond]

That's the point I was trying to make before

 

[Tranquility]

The virus is in the population. It is not going to "die out" no matter what measures you take. Just like all the other flu viruses and corona viruses out there. It will be here next year. If three weeks would solve Covid-19, why not ALL corona virus "colds" or ALL viruses that cause flu as well? Do all we have to do to get rid of cold and flu season forever is wear masks now for three weeks?

The value of masks as a community mitigation (As opposed to personal protection.) is trying to keep transmission down while we're wearing them to keep exponential growth from happening that will overwhelm the hospitals. It will also extend the time we have before more of the population is infected before effective treatments, prevention by vaccine or herd immunity occurs. While there are no effective treatments for the virus at this time, the main issue that causes death in populations other than the most vulnerable (Co-morbidity of age and some other factor like diabetes, heart disease etc.) is the cytokine storm. The steroid they're using for that now seems to be cheap and effective and has the additional benefit of not having the president tell people it works.

If the main reason left to wearing a mask is the protection of the vulnerable population (Which I am in by age, but might not have a co-morbidity--unless this vaping is a bad thing.) until we get a vaccine, I again ask, why would we not do this every year during cold and flu season? The vulnerable will still be as vulnerable and the risk will still be out there from either Covid-19 or some other nastie.
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In today's Wall Street Journal an opinion piece ("Covid Was a Punch in the Mouth") alleges the CDC just changed their website on the topic:
A sensible and authoritative warning recently disappeared from the CDC website: "In the coming months, most of the U.S. population will be exposed to this virus."

Does anyone know why the change was made?

(If you search for the exact phrase, you see the Marin County Health and Human Services FAQ page still use it. Frequently Asked Questions | Marin County Coronavirus Information )

 

[ginolicious]

Looks like corona out of control again. Spikes in Germany and Japan. Japan had a nice cluster in an office building now.

was also reading articles about people who have had Corona for over 100 days. What the hell is going on with this virus? This is no where near over. It’s just terrible.

 

[macbill]

 

[macbill]

Why simple cloth masks without valves are better at fighting the spread of covid-19

Those face masks you see with coin-sized valves on the front may look intriguing but they are not as good at preventing the spread of the novel coronavirus as the seemingly lower-tech, non-valved masks.

 

[macbill]

States with largest case increases over last week
7-day average of daily new reported cases per 100,000 residents

 

[Tranquility]

States with largest case increases over last week
7-day average of daily new reported cases per 100,000 residents

Now, go to the same page and click "deaths" and find the lines generally flat or decreasing.

 

[macbill]

Fauci says Covid-19 vaccine may not get US to herd immunity if too many people refuse to get it

Dr. Anthony Fauci says he would "settle" for a Covid-19 vaccine that's 70% to 75% effective, but that this incomplete protection, coupled with the fact that many Americans say they won't get a coronavirus vaccine, makes it "unlikely" that the US will achieve sufficient levels of immunity to quell the outbreak.

 

[Tranquility]

Fauci says Covid-19 vaccine may not get US to herd immunity if too many people refuse to get it

Dr. Anthony Fauci says he would "settle" for a Covid-19 vaccine that's 70% to 75% effective, but that this incomplete protection, coupled with the fact that many Americans say they won't get a coronavirus vaccine, makes it "unlikely" that the US will achieve sufficient levels of immunity to quell the outbreak.

I hate getting sick and I always get the vaccine. Even the ones I have to pay for myself like shingles and pneumonia. (Flu is free!) Same with the pets. Put it all in there even for the things that aren't that bad. Whenever I want to make a risk to reward calculation to someone about it if saves even one life, vaccines are amazing. There is no place you can donate for more effect than to organizations that provide vaccines to those who can't afford them.

BUT...

We don't have a number for herd immunity yet that is based on Covid-19. The general number is 80%. We all can do the math to see the vaccination at 70-75% to 2/3 of the population is not 80%. Unless we add in those who already got it and who have natural immunity. Since we don't know if you get immunity after having this disease and we don't know what percentage of the population have any immunity if you do get it from overcoming the disease and that immunity is not always a 1 or a 0 but can reflect a range of possibilities AND the fact that some who are immune will eventually get the vaccine anyway, it does seem we won't get herd immunity from vaccine in our current political climate.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics...ws-anti-vaxxers-are-a-bipartisan-problem.html

Even then, there are some scientific trapeze jumps in this set of vaccines we're making very rapidly. They're using a different technique by necessity to get it made quickly and with the ability to ramp up production for the world.

I'm not going to be the first in line to get stuck. I'm going to stick with my mask, social distancing and Vitamin D for just a bit.

 

[macbill]

This coronavirus mutation has taken over the world. Scientists are trying to understand why.

When the first coronavirus cases in Chicago appeared in January, they bore the same genetic signatures as a germ that emerged in China weeks before.

But as Egon Ozer, an infectious-disease specialist at the Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, examined the genetic structure of virus samples from local patients, he noticed something different.

 

[Tranquility]

This coronavirus mutation has taken over the world. Scientists are trying to understand why.

When the first coronavirus cases in Chicago appeared in January, they bore the same genetic signatures as a germ that emerged in China weeks before.

But as Egon Ozer, an infectious-disease specialist at the Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, examined the genetic structure of virus samples from local patients, he noticed something different.

In the U.S., they've known since the start of the pandemic that there were at least two basic strains. The west coast strain seemed to come directly from China while the east coast strain came here by way of Europe. Right now, I think there are at least 8 strains recognized.

https://www.seacoastonline.com/zz/n...obe-heres-what-clues-theyre-giving-scientists

 

[ginolicious]

We are all fucked. Last time I checked there were 5 strains. Now that there’s 8. Jesus. We in for a wild ride.

500,000 deaths. And 10 million infected globally.

 

[Tranquility]

We are all fucked. Last time I checked there were 5 strains. Now that there’s 8. Jesus. We in for a wild ride.

500,000 deaths. And 10 million infected globally.

But, you're doing everything you CAN!
Researchers Are Looking At Cannabis As A Potential Way To Prevent COVID-19

With the study:
https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0315/v1
Abstract:
With the rapidly growing pandemic of COVID-19 caused by the new and challenging to treat zoonotic SARS-CoV2 coronavirus, there is an urgent need for new therapies and prevention strategies that can help curtail disease spread and reduce mortality. Inhibition of viral entry and thereby spread constitute plausible therapeutic avenues. Similar to other respiratory pathogens, SARS-CoV2 is transmitted through respiratory droplets, with potential for aerosol and contact spread. It uses receptor-mediated entry into the human host via angiotensin-converting enzyme II (ACE2) that is expressed in lung tissue, as well as oral and nasal mucosa, kidney, testes, and the gastrointestinal tract. Modulation of ACE2 levels in these gateway tissues may prove a plausible strategy for decreasing disease susceptibility. Cannabis sativa, especially one high in the anti-inflammatory cannabinoid cannabidiol (CBD), has been proposed to modulate gene expression and inflammation and harbour anti-cancer and anti-inflammatory properties. Working under the Health Canada research license, we have developed over 800 new Cannabis sativa lines and extracts and hypothesized that high-CBD C. sativa extracts may be used to modulate ACE2 expression in COVID-19 target tissues. Screening C. sativa extracts using artificial human 3D models of oral, airway, and intestinal tissues, we identified 13 high CBD C. sativa extracts that modulate ACE2 gene expression and ACE2 protein levels. Our initial data suggest that some C. sativa extract down-regulate serine protease TMPRSS2, another critical protein required for SARS-CoV2 entry into host cells. While our most effective extracts require further large-scale validation, our study is crucial for the future analysis of the effects of medical cannabis on COVID-19. The extracts of our most successful and novel high CBD C. sativa lines, pending further investigation, may become a useful and safe addition to the treatment of COVID-19 as an adjunct therapy. They can be used to develop easy-to-use preventative treatments in the form of mouthwash and throat gargle products for both clinical and at-home use. Such products ought to be tested for their potential to decrease viral entry via the oral mucosa. Given the current dire and rapidly evolving epidemiological situation, every possible therapeutic opportunity and avenue must be considered.

 

[macbill]

The CDC surrenders: COVID-19 spreading too rapidly to be brought under control

Almost four months after the initial surge of virus blindsided states that didn’t understand the extent of spread that had happened in the ignorance generated by zero testing, the COVID-19 epidemic is burning more brightly than ever before. That’s happening in spite of every warning and all the knowledge that should have been gained over those intervening months. And it’s blazing at such a level that on Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced that this fire can’t be brought under control. The United States simply has “too much virus” to contain.

=======================================================================================
WHO Chief On COVID-19 Pandemic: 'The Worst Is Yet To Come'

The head of the World Health Organization is warning that the COVID-19 pandemic is speeding up, and he criticized governments that have failed to establish reliable contact tracing to stop the spread of the coronavirus.

 

[Tranquility]

Mandatory lockdowns were a bust. The data regards the U.K. so the politics should be a bit less. ("QALY" is the same measure they use in insurance calculations.) In comments on the study, one said the general QALY value in the U.S. is $140,000. I can't find a good modern reference on if that is true. 20 years ago it was less. (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1497852/)

TL;DR:
The lowest estimate for lockdown costs incurred was 50% higher than highest benefits from avoiding the worst mortality case scenario at full life expectancy tariff and in more realistic estimation they were over 50 times higher.

Living with COVID 19: Balancing costs against benefits in the face of the virus
The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed lives across the world. In the UK there has been a public health driven policy of population ‘lockdown’ that had enormous personal and economic impact. We compare UK response/outcomes including excess deaths with European countries with similar levels of income/healthcare resources. We calibrate estimates of the economic costs as different %loss in GDP against possible benefits of avoiding life years lost, for different scenarios where local COVID-19 mortality/comorbidity rates were used to calculate the loss in life expectancy. We apply quality-adjusted life years (QALY) value of £30,000 (maximum under NICE guidelines). The implications for future lockdown easing policy in the UK are also evaluated. The spread of cases across European countries was extremely rapid. There was significant variation both in severity and timing of both implementation and subsequent reductions in social restrictions. There was less variation in the trajectory of mortality rates and excess deaths, which have fallen across all countries during May/June 2020. The average age at death and life expectancy loss for non-COVID-19 was 79.1 and 11.4years respectively while COVID-19 were 80.4 and 10.1years; including for life-shortening comorbidities and quality of life reduced this to 5QALY for each COVID-19 death. The lowest estimate for lockdown costs incurred was 50% higher than highest benefits from avoiding the worst mortality case scenario at full life expectancy tariff and in more realistic estimation they were over 50 times higher. Application to potential future scenarios showed in the best case a QALY value of £220k (7xNICE guideline) and in the worst-case £3.7m (125xNICE guideline) was needed to justify the continuation of the lockdown. The evidence suggests that the costs of continuing severe restrictions in the UK are so great relative to likely benefits in numbers of lives saved so that a substantial easing in restrictions is now warranted.

 

[macbill]

Fauci Tells Congress U.S. Could Start Seeing 100,000 New Cases A Day
In a Tuesday hearing with the Senate Help Committee on the state of the coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci said he is “very concerned” about rise in coronavirus cases across the U.S. as the nation sees 40,000 new cases per day.


=======================================================================================

		Change from June 23
Country	Reported cases	Total	Pct.	Deaths
U.S.	2,594,279	263,794	+11%	124,589
Brazil	1,368,195	222,289	+19%	58,314
Russia	646,929	48,051	+8%	9,306
India	566,840	126,625	+29%	16,893
Britain	314,159	6,477	+2%	43,815
Peru	282,365	21,555	+8%	9,504

 

[Tranquility]

 

[macbill]

U.S. already at 100,000 new coronavirus cases a day, it just isn’t testing them all, former FDA Commissioner Gottlieb says

The U.S. still isn’t testing enough people for the coronavirus, especially as outbreaks accelerate in many states, former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Wednesday.

 

[Tranquility]

California's hospitalization statistics might not just be an anomaly.

Coronavirus Jumps the Border, Overwhelming Hospitals in California

The swelling numbers of Covid-19 patients entering the United States from Mexico comes as many parts of California have pushed down their infection rates, enabling many counties to lift stay-at-home restrictions and reopen businesses.
“We worked hard to flatten the curve in California,” said Carmela Coyle, president of the California Hospital Association, who issued an appeal to hospital systems across the state for help. “Now we have a surge in the Imperial Valley because the situation is so severe in Mexicali.”

Other parts of the border, including San Diego County, also have been scrambling with a wave of patients from Baja California, the state adjacent to California. Border towns in Arizona are experiencing an increase in infections that health officials believe is tied to people coming in from Sonora state.

Similar stories:

Baja Border an 'Achilles Heel' for COVID-19 Control

Hospital chiefs plead with HHS to start medical checks for thousands who cross from Tijuana daily

www.medpagetoday.com

Struggling local hospitals contact feds for help

The growing number of COVID-19 cases in South Bay has prompted leaders of two hospitals to email the U.S. Health and Human Services secretary over what they call an emerging local health crisis.The…

www.sandiegouniontribune.com

As reopening continues, hospitals and researchers worry about a COVID resurgence

Tuesday brought significant contrast to San Diego County on the coronavirus front. As beach parking lots and piers reopened, Scripps Health stopped taking new COVID-19 transfers amid a rash of seve…

www.sandiegouniontribune.com

 

[macbill]

Houston Moves COVID-19 Patients to Other Cities: 'We Don't Have Capacity'

With novel coronavirus cases in Texas approaching nearly 161,900, hospitals in Houston, the county seat of Harris County, are moving patients to facilities outside the city in a bid to cope with the surge in COVID-19-related cases and lack of beds.

 

[Tranquility]

Houston Moves COVID-19 Patients to Other Cities: 'We Don't Have Capacity'

With novel coronavirus cases in Texas approaching nearly 161,900, hospitals in Houston, the county seat of Harris County, are moving patients to facilities outside the city in a bid to cope with the surge in COVID-19-related cases and lack of beds.

If true, I wonder if it has anything to do with the influx from the south, as seems the case in CA. But, here's a guy who claims it's not true:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1277773122301804546

Other than nextdoor, there are few worse places on the internet than Twitter so take the link with the appropriate amount of salt. However, nothing in what he writes is directly contradicted in the article and he uses his own name and position with full knowledge of how that's probably going to work out for him so it has a ring of truth to it.

 

[macbill]

Alabama students throwing 'COVID parties' to see who gets infected: Officials

Students in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 have been attending parties in the city and surrounding area as part of a disturbing contest to see who can catch the virus first, a city council member told ABC News on Wednesday.

 

[Gigsabits53]

We are living in the age of STUPID!!