The 2016 Presidential Candidates Thread

lwien

Well-Known Member
I'm sorry, but "they must be stopped at all costs" is violent....

" "they must be stopped at all costs" can be construed as inciting a violent action. Hope that's not what you meant."-----fixed.

Saying that that phraseology IS violent is not accurate for it could be within the context of voting and nothing more.

I know you're new here TelFIRE but telling someone that they are inciting violence while at the same time, telling them that they are a hypocrite and that they are lowering the level of dialog, all in the same post, to me, is a personal attack in an effort to bait them to respond. There's a word for that and I sincerely hope that that is not what you are doing here.

This thread has been kept open ONLY because we have all refrained from personal attacks. I suggest that you just discuss the subject at hand rather than commenting on someones posting style 'cause if you don't, this thread could spiral out of control and it will be closed which I am sure many of us would not want to see happen including yourself, I would imagine, eh?

Edit: Sorry for sounding like a mod here but this thread deserves to stay open.
 
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TelFiRE

Well-Known Member
I have not personally attacked anyone, I have constantly been attacked for sharing my opinion. Re-read this objectively, without taking sides. It's pretty clear who's being civil. I actually went to great lengths to explain my position and explain that it was absolutely not a personal attack.

"I suggest that you just discuss the subject at hand rather than commenting on someones posting style"

Seriously? Do you really not see the massive level of hypocrisy going on here? What it is, is that I hold an unpopular opinion and am getting dogpiled on. I'm sorry but you're in the wrong here, and you are the ones making this dialog toxic not me. It's absurd to accuse me of personal attacks in the same sentence as you rip me to pieces for having a differing opinion. That's the last I'll say on this or anything here.
 
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TelFiRE,

Chill Dude

Well-Known Member
It will be huge for Bernie if he could win Nevada even by 1%. That might give him a little momentum going into SC where he is trailing by about 18% primarily due to his lack of black dems supporting him. In my view, if Bernie can close the gap in South Carolina and loses by less than 10% that would be a win for his campaign going forward. The campaign always knew SC would be very tough to win. It's a long uphill battle, but Bernie has the support and the money to take this all the way to the convention... Maybe?
 

cybrguy

Putin is a War Criminal
The perils of ‘wishful thinking’

Bernie Sanders makes no secret of his plan to raise taxes on much of the public, but the Vermont senator believes it’s necessary. His ambitious and progressive platform – including single-payer health care and free college tuition – isn’t cheap, and a Sanders administration wouldn’t try to simply add the costs the national debt.

But the New York Times reported yesterday that some “liberal-leaning economists” who share Sanders’ goals have begun to “question his numbers.” Austan Goolsbee, formerly chairman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, now at the University of Chicago, told the Times that the Sanders campaign’s numbers “don’t remotely add up.”

When one progressive analyst called Sanders’ platform “puppies and rainbows,” Goolsbee said the assessment doesn’t go nearly far enough. The numbers have actually “evolved into magic flying puppies with winning Lotto tickets tied to their collars,” the progressive economist added.

And while that’s a great quote, what really stood out for me was this.
Jared Bernstein, the former economic adviser to Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. who is now at the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, examined a paper by the economist advising Mr. Sanders, Gerald Friedman of the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, that is circulating on the left.

While calling Mr. Friedman’s work a good effort, Mr. Bernstein cited several assumptions as “wishful thinking.” Among them were minimal health-cost inflation, economic growth reaching 5.3 percent and, in that heated-up economy, no action from the Federal Reserve to apply brakes.​
And that gives me pause.

Last summer, Jeb Bush got the ball rolling on wishful economic thinking, vowing to create 4% GDP growth in his first term as president. The Florida Republican admitted at the time the figure wasn’t based on any meaningful policy analysis; he just liked the sound of 4% growth, so it became a centerpiece of his campaign.

Others quickly chimed in. Chris Christie also promised 4% growth. Scott Walker said he could get that figure to 4.5%. None of these numbers related to anything other than bravado rhetoric; candidates were simply pulling numbers out of the air.

To be sure, Sanders is approaching the debate with greater seriousness – his numbers aren’t just made up, for example – but he’s nevertheless pointing to projections that are incredibly optimistic.

In order for Sanders’ numbers to add up, he’s expecting the economy to grow at 5.3%. To put that in perspective, how many modern presidents – from either party – have seen 4% growth during their tenures? None. Literally, not a single one. Not Clinton, not Obama, not Reagan, no one has achieved growth that high. If any of them did, it’s awfully likely the Fed would raise interest rates, deliberately cooling growth out of inflationary fears.

I’ll gladly concede that many of Sanders’ domestic priorities would help the economy enormously. I have no idea how some of these measures would get through Congress, but if the point is that investments in infrastructure, for example, will boost economic growth, I completely agree.

But if Sanders makes his numbers add up by assuming 5.3% growth, there’s a problem with this plan. Republicans were derided – by among others, me – for overly rosy projections that were simply unrealistic, and it’s only fair to subject Sanders’ agenda to the same scrutiny.
 

howie105

Well-Known Member
If it comes down to a convention fight between Clinton and Sanders I would not bet against the mainline candidate. The delegate count usually favours the mainline candidate at the conventions. Sure there are those act of god situations but I am going with the odds.
 

CarolKing

Singer of songs and a vapor connoisseur
A lot can happen between now and the convention for both parties this summer. A number of factors could come to play like war, terrorism, stock market, jobs and mass shootings. Or even some bomb shell of an issue among any of the candidates. Remember John Edwards, that came out of the blue. Who would have thought that would of happened.

This I found online. So there are various economic professors that have an opinion regarding Bernie's plan for America. It was a little longer, so I cut off part at the end. This is from the Pittsberg Post Gazette.
CK


Edit
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders knew his ideas for stimulating America’s economy would be costly. Programs for infrastructure, pension funds, free public college tuition and paid family leave don’t come cheap.

So the Vermont senator asked an economic team at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst to put a price tag on his plans.

The analysis, prepared by economics professor Gerald Friedman, came in at $14.5 trillion over 10 years. But that, the report concludes, is money well spent — a conclusion not shared by many Sanders opponents.

“The Sanders spending program is a significant stimulus to an economy that continues to underperform,” Mr. Friedman said in the report. “These programs will increase economic growth and employment, reduce poverty and inequality, and balance the federal budget.”

Of course, all candidates for president claim to have ideas that boost the economy and put more money in Americans’ pockets. Few, however, predict that they will raise the median household income by 37 percent by 2026, as opposed to the 10 percent growth projected by the Congressional Budget Office. “In real dollars, this means an increase in median household income of over $20,000,” Mr. Friedman said.

“Like the New Deal of the 1930s, Senator Sanders’ program is designed to do more than merely increase economic activity: the expenditure, regulatory, and tax programs will increase economic activity and employment, and promote a more just prosperity.”

Following in the footsteps of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, Mr. Sanders’ proposals rely on greater government involvement.

“Wage increases and reductions in poverty and inequality will come more from government action, especially increases in the minimum wage, and from progressive taxation, rather than from collective bargaining or the working of competitive labor markets,” Mr. Friedman concluded.

“By shifting income from the rich to working people and the middle class, the regulatory changes Senator Sanders proposes, including higher minimum wages for women and overtime workers, and support for increased unionization, will also stimulate economic activity.”

The spending can be intimidating. It projects $1 trillion over five years for infrastructure, including roads, bridges, railroads, mass transit, as well as alternative energy and pollution abatement; $750 billion over 10 years for free public college tuition; $320 billion to fund family and medical leave through 2016; and $5.5 billion for youth summer employment in 2017 and 2018.

Mr. Sanders also would raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2020.

There will be taxes. A 0.2 percent increase in the payroll tax on employers and employees. A carbon tax that would generate $1.1 trillion over the first decade. And progressive taxes on the top 2 percent.

“The tax program, which produces a dramatic reduction in inequality, has only a relatively small negative effect on economic activity because it is targeted so precisely at the richest with their relatively low propensities to consume,” Mr. Friedman said.

The optimistic assessment of Mr. Sanders’ programs might be taken with a grain of salt by some.

Many economists are dubious of the optimistic claims Mr. Sanders has made.

In its Upshot column, the New York Times quoted Mr. Friedman’s response to questions about how exactly Mr. Sanders’ plan would be implemented: “The pleasure of being an academic is I can just spell things out and leave the details to others,” Mr. Friedman said. “The details very quickly get very messy.”

But the absence of the “very messy” details in the Sanders plan is telling,” Upshot writer Margot Sanger-Katz wrote. “He wants to make major reforms to the health care system, and those changes will come with costs and uncertainties. Enacting his plan could make health care more affordable and less complicated for many Americans, especially those earning low incomes. But it would require wrenching, disruptive change.”

Warren Gunnels, policy director for the Sanders campaign, hailed the report’s finding that the proposals are feasible and expressed hope that more people will look into them.

“It’s gotten a little bit of attention, but not nearly as much as we would like,” Mr. Gunnels said. “Senator Sanders has been fighting establishment politics, the establishment economics and the establishment media. And this is the last thing they want to take a look at.

“It shows that over a 10-year period, we would create 26 million new jobs, the poverty rate would plummet, that incomes would go up dramatically, and we would have strong economic growth. ... It’s a very bold plan, and we want to get this out there.”

Mr. Friedman, who is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, admits that he is inclined to think along the same lines as Mr. Sanders. But he insists his research was purely professional.

“I would have done [such an assessment] for anybody,” he said. “I have never been paid by the campaign. I do have a Sanders coffee mug, which I gave them $35 for. And we do have a Sanders bumper sticker on my wife’s car, and I donated $35 for that. Otherwise, I donate $10 a month to the Hillary Clinton campaign.

“I worry about [bias] all the time. I’m an academic, and the most important thing for me is to do work with integrity and honesty. That’s my reputation. I need to protect my good name. So I worry about introducing a bias that comes out of my own values. I did try, in this report, to lean over backwards the other way.”

Mr. Friedman acknowledged that the Sanders program promotes growth and prosperity rather than a balanced budget.

“[But] while the Sanders fiscal stimulus will initially increase the federal deficit, this deficit will contribute to faster economic growth which, combined with progressive tax increases, will quickly bring down the deficit,” he said, “producing a surplus during a Sanders second term.”

The Sanders program would, of course, face political obstacles to enactment. Other considerations are the influence of the Federal Reserve and the economies of other nations.
 
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lwien

Well-Known Member
A lot can happen between now and the convention for both parties this summer. A number of factors could come to play like war, terrorism, stock market, jobs and mass shootings. Or even some bomb shell of an issue among any of the candidates. Remember John Edwards, that came out of the blue. Who would have thought that would of happened.

Add to that possible health issues that could impact both Bernie and Hillary considering Bernies age and Hillary's past health issues.
 

CarolKing

Singer of songs and a vapor connoisseur
Above in that Newspaper article its talking about a ten year period. I can only see Bernie as a one term president. It will take a long time for these things to come about. I don't know if America has that long of an attention span. People want results right away.
 

cybrguy

Putin is a War Criminal
But the absence of the “very messy” details in the Sanders plan is telling,” Upshot writer Margot Sanger-Katz wrote. “He wants to make major reforms to the health care system, and those changes will come with costs and uncertainties. Enacting his plan could make health care more affordable and less complicated for many Americans, especially those earning low incomes. But it would require wrenching, disruptive change.”

I'm Bernie Sanders here to tell you the benefits are HUGE!!! Just Trust Me! That's all you have to do...

Sorry folks, even if it were the best of all possible worlds and sure to do EVERYTHING Bernie promises it will do, without the cooperation of congress it is all bupkiss. And there is NO WAY congress goes along with a pig in a poke like Bernie's plan. They won't even go for one that includes real numbers rather than magic asterisks, so how do you convince them to go with something that can't even be scored?
 

His_Highness

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king
@CarolKing and @cybrguy latest posts just pointed out something I have to remind myself every now and then....

- Political polls, economics, stock market investing and psychiatry are not exact sciences. You can always find an opposing view point. *AND*
- Each view point will be stated with the 100% confidence.

Anyone got a grain of salt I can borrow?

By the way....CK's article is the more accurate economic reference since it lines up with what I prefer to hear :nod:

I'm His_Highness and I approve 'Sending this message' because that's what I want to happen :rockon:

Edit: FYI...I intentionally left out the 'sarcasm' stickers for some of the statements above. :rofl:
 

CarolKing

Singer of songs and a vapor connoisseur
Bernie is going to need a really good person in mind for Vice President. I would like to hear who he has in mind. With his age as @lwien pointed out that is an important factor. He could live into his 90s but we don't know that. We have heard rumors of Elizabeth Warren but they are just rumors.

My caucus will be in Aoril.
 

cybrguy

Putin is a War Criminal
Actually adding someone else on the far left to the ticket will not help it win, I would think. I think he would need to choose someone more moderate, and probably younger. Assuming he is trying to win and not just make a point...
 

lwien

Well-Known Member
Actually adding someone else on the far left to the ticket will not help it win, I would think. I think he would need to choose someone more moderate, and probably younger. Assuming he is trying to win and not just make a point...

I disagree. I think that rather than diluting his message, he would need to cement it in an effort to alleviate the concerns that his work will continue down the exact same path if God forbid, something should happen to him.
 

lwien

Well-Known Member
How many presidential elections do you believe were either won or lost due to a Vice President pick? I can't think of any but would love to hear some examples. In the whole scheme of things, I don't think it much matters, eh even though we may think it does.
 

Chill Dude

Well-Known Member
I don't think Elizabeth Warren would be the right choice for Bernie's running mate... Although I think she's great!

Even if Bernie doesn't win and Hillary ultimately wins the nomination, we may in fact have a new and improved Hillary more in line with true progressive values. The longer Bernie stays in, the further he will push Clinton to the left. By the time Hillary wins the nomination she may very well sound more like Elizabeth Warren than Hillary Clinton haha..

She will ultimately need the full support of Sander's supporters going into the general..

So in a strange way, Bernie's message of change may live on to a certain degree through Hillary and her positions and policies as President..
 

Gunky

Well-Known Member
How many presidential elections do you believe were either won or lost due to a Vice President pick? I can't think of any but would love to hear some examples. In the whole scheme of things, I don't think it much matters, eh even though we may think it does.
Remember when McGovern picked that guy and then he turned out to have had some mental health history and electro-shock therapy... He changed to another vp candidate but it was pretty devastating.
 
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