Let's put it in context.
The legalization lobbies (DPA, ACLU, MPP, SSDP, etc.) *begged* Rich Lee (Prop 19's main architect, Oaksterdam U founder) to wait until 2012 to try to get this thing passed, for two reasons.
1) This was obviously a conservative wave year - not a good place for a pro-marijuana ballot initiative to find itself; and
2) Young people - the base for a pro-legalization initiative - simply don't turn out for midterm elections. They never have. Without them Prop 19 was bound to lose.
For awhile it seemed as if the polls were swinging up, so I kept my mouth shut. (And anyway what good does it do anyone to be a professional buzzkill?) But these basic facts were always true, and they doomed Prop 19 before it got started.
All that said -- is this a loss?
It all depends on what the movement does with this result. If we let the most cynical among us determine the meaning of this vote, and we all shake our heads and go home knowing that Americans will never support sane drug laws; if we allow the right-wing media to tar this defeat as a nationwide referendum on marijuana; if we pack up our lobbying and campaign apparatuses; if we "take our ball and go home," in other words...then, yes, this is a tremendous loss, one from which we probably won't recover.
But if we choose to see this as the next step on the (very short!) road to legalization, I don't believe it will be a loss. It's a loss of many millions of dollars for Rich Lee, but he didn't listen to good advice and probably had that coming.
But for the rest of us, Prop 19 pushed marijuana into the mainstream like never before. We've claimed and now hold the moral high ground. There's almost no one out there, aside from the dumbest politicians and law enforcement officials, willing to say that marijuana is inherently dangerous or bad - their only arguments are ridiculous slippery-slope constructions that, increasingly, Americans see right through. And our best chance yet - 2012 - is still before us.
We have two years to double down and make one stick, and I think we are perfectly positioned to do it. We have the money, we have the organizational ability, and we have the moral high ground. All we need to do now is get out there and get the votes.