...If you ask me – or anyone in the industry – it is clear that Mexican senators simply decided to de facto put the Cannabis Law bill in the freezer out of concern that voting on something deemed highly controversial could cost them votes in what perhaps are the most important intermediate elections in recent Mexican history. Let me say it again, Congress has never been bound to regulate the whole industry. Politicians offered to do so. The issue is that now, by failing to pass the Cannabis Law bill, which among others, provided for adult use, Congress have also failed to regulate cannabis self-cultivation and self-consumption.
In this context, we face three potential scenarios: first, that Congress might ask the Supreme Court for ANOTHER deadline extension (highly unlikely: this should have been officially asked and I have never heard of such a request from the Senate). Second, that the Supreme Court, given Congress’ failure to regulate cannabis self-consumption, might decide to issue a General Declaration of Unconstitutionality that will expunge from the Mexican legal system those provisions that prohibit cannabis cultivation and consumption for personal use and which had already been deemed unconstitutional by the Court via jurisprudencia (binding court precedent). For the aforesaid to happen, at least eight Supreme Court Justices have to decide in favor. A third scenario would be that the Supreme Court meets, but does not reach the majority necessary to issue a General Declaration of Unconstitutionality. In that case, it will be business as usual: consumers will have to continue applying with COFEPRIS for a self-cultivation/self-consumption permit and filing amparo actions in case of non-response or denial.
Indeed, although the main benefit of the General Declaration of Unconstitutionality is that by expunging prohibitionist provisions it would no longer be necessary for consumers to file amparo actions to exercise their right to consume cannabis, the real problem is the legal void left by the expungement of such provisions and the legal uncertainty this would entail for consumers and cannabis companies. In other words, if upon the issuance of the General Declaration of Unconstitutionality there will be no provisions whatsoever regulating cannabis cultivation and consumption for personal use, how will people know what is lawful and what is not? This was the task Congress had to prove it was up to for the creation of a legitimate Mexican cannabis industry -and still is, if the Supreme Court, for any reason, decides it is not proper at the moment to issue a General Declaration of Unconstitutionality....