COVID-19 News
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CarolKing
Singer of songs and a vapor connoisseur
This whole pandemic could have been handled in the beginning with self distancing and wearing a mask plus testing folks with no symptoms. In the beginning they screwed up on testing. They were too worried about vaping issues at the time. Remember that?
We still don’t have enough testing to test folks without symptoms the only way to open everything up in America is to follow science not politics. How do they open schools up without testing? I work with kids at an elementary school. I won’t feel safe here in WA state our rates of the virus is going up like everywhere else. I’m not sure how well I would do if I contacted the COVID virus, I’m over 60. Prez wants all schools open WTF!
Its like a man (or woman) refusing to get directions if lost. It really depends on where you live, if you have a governor that actually listens to science. If you have a governor that wants to please the Prez and believes in conspiracy theories then you maybe in trouble. It’s all citizens for themselves in some places. Our state requires us to wear a mask. I have no problem with that. If we worked together as a nation, as a united group of states instead of every state doing their own thing maybe we could get life back to somewhat normal. NY has great leadership and folks worked together to squash the virus - the rate is like 1%
We need to follow a standard when the rate of virus goes up. If the virus goes down in an area then lift restrictions. None of the states followed the recommendations that were originally set in place. The rate of the virus should be well under 5% positive cases along with people without symptoms tested to be able to open up more services and venues. South Korea did it right. Why don’t we do what they did? We need to contract trace. How do you do that though when 11,000 have Covid in one day, pretty hard to contact trace.
Too bad that Texas still hasn’t learned a lesson, today they have fans watching NASCAR in the stands with 50% occupancy. They need to wear masks. Not sure if that will actually be enforced.
We still don’t have enough testing to test folks without symptoms the only way to open everything up in America is to follow science not politics. How do they open schools up without testing? I work with kids at an elementary school. I won’t feel safe here in WA state our rates of the virus is going up like everywhere else. I’m not sure how well I would do if I contacted the COVID virus, I’m over 60. Prez wants all schools open WTF!
Its like a man (or woman) refusing to get directions if lost. It really depends on where you live, if you have a governor that actually listens to science. If you have a governor that wants to please the Prez and believes in conspiracy theories then you maybe in trouble. It’s all citizens for themselves in some places. Our state requires us to wear a mask. I have no problem with that. If we worked together as a nation, as a united group of states instead of every state doing their own thing maybe we could get life back to somewhat normal. NY has great leadership and folks worked together to squash the virus - the rate is like 1%
We need to follow a standard when the rate of virus goes up. If the virus goes down in an area then lift restrictions. None of the states followed the recommendations that were originally set in place. The rate of the virus should be well under 5% positive cases along with people without symptoms tested to be able to open up more services and venues. South Korea did it right. Why don’t we do what they did? We need to contract trace. How do you do that though when 11,000 have Covid in one day, pretty hard to contact trace.
Too bad that Texas still hasn’t learned a lesson, today they have fans watching NASCAR in the stands with 50% occupancy. They need to wear masks. Not sure if that will actually be enforced.
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Tranquility
Well-Known Member
The Imperial College model *predicting* 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. and 500,000 in the UK had as its limitation flattening the curve to keep ICU utilization down until vaccine.
I didn't watch the video as I don't need internet nuts make claims about how everyone is wrong but themselves. But, to deny there was a prediction that freaked out everyone to the point of an economic hit some may never recover from is not useful. Why everyone wants to assign blame on all things Covid where there is a lot of fuckitude about on all sides. Here, too. This expert was wrong. Way, way wrong. It seems MANY models were wrong. It astonished me how many adjustments had to be made in them with new information. I would have thought modeling disease spread was a pretty mature science. But, when you read the stories of how modeling works and how the scientists use software they don't fully understand and that is decades old it tells you it is still a young science with a lot to learn.
UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts
Epidemiologist Who Estimated 2.2 Million Dead In U.S., 500,000 In U.K. Dramatically Downgrades Projection
Although, here's a guy saying much the same as @Gunky:
2.2 Million American Deaths from Covid-19? The strange career of a fanciful projection
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Siebter
Less soul, more mind
@Tranquility – Maybe take a look at how statistic modelling works. To say scientists „predicted“ xyz# of deaths shows you don't understand what these numbers say and what they are used for.
Tranquility
Well-Known Member
I understand it just fine. Let me know where the reduction in deaths come from in theory. Here's the actual report so you can see the figures yourself. Yes, there are different levels of deaths based on different interventions PREDICTED. They were wrong too.
The reduction in deaths on the different interventions is based on using that intervention until vaccine and herd immunity and flattening the curve to not overwhelm the medical system.
Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
Part of the report (Note the "we predict" language.):
Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined.In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
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Siebter
Less soul, more mind
@Tranquility – Seriously, you don't understand what those statistics are used for. They are not meant to be taken as predictions, they are models. Case scenarious. There's a reason why this model did not take place, but it's not because the numbers are wrong, but because certain parameters were different – and there's a whole lot of other statistical models with other numbers and other parameters. The one you refer to tried to predict the numbers of cases when you wouldn't do anything at all.
To take those numbers to downplay the tragedy that is taking place right now is highly manipulative.
To take those numbers to downplay the tragedy that is taking place right now is highly manipulative.
Tranquility
Well-Known Member
That is exactly how they are used. To predict different results from different interventions to see the benefit to the intervention. The costs are more for the politicians.
"The one I referred to" was linked before you replied. In it, you will see the whole POINT of the report was to help determine interventions so the 2.2 million is reduced. You might try reading it before telling me what's in it.
The .gif is pretty big. If it's not running use https://i.redd.it/j227ounfhyb51.gif) .
Tranquility
Well-Known Member
Even though it was alleged, it's not Republicans who don't understand science. Apparently, there's a lot of misunderstanding going around and, before we start blaming political parties about deaths from disease, we should probably at least read the facts and try to come to some understanding.
For a more "fair fighting" where we point to a specific point at issue rather than broad painting of what everyone always does, here's the words that caused the death of thousands:
No resident shall be denied re-admission or admission to the NH solely based on a confirmed or
suspected diagnosis of COVID-19. NHs are prohibited from requiring a hospitalized resident who is
determined medically stable to be tested for COVID-19 prior to admission or readmission.
Advisory: Hospital Discharges and Admissions to Nursing Homes
Would they have died anyway? I don't know. I don't think anyone does. But, I'd like to know the exact reasoning why and investigate to know if there were any monetary considerations behind the order.
zor
Well-Known Member
@Tranquility , bear in mind this is a novel disease. We can only build predictions on information we are able to reproduce and confirm, drawing on what we do know of similar viruses and disease models. Our observation and study of Covid-19 during a very limited time window is very likely to have gaps in understanding, but it's the best we can go on. No one can predict the future with absolute certainty.
And science is indeed the frightful enemy of the GOP because it directly threatens so many sources of their revenue and funding, industry allies and special interest groups alike. They frequently attack and attempt to discredit scientific studies that don't support their agenda.
And science is indeed the frightful enemy of the GOP because it directly threatens so many sources of their revenue and funding, industry allies and special interest groups alike. They frequently attack and attempt to discredit scientific studies that don't support their agenda.
Tranquility
Well-Known Member
In a federalist system, power devolves to the states unless specifically reserved for the federal government. In the U.S., our Constitution lays out such a system. The governors are most responsible to protect the citizens of their states.
We know authoritarian governments with power in the hands of an executive can be very efficient. But, our scissor-rock-paper of checks and balances not only occurs between the executive, legislative and judicial branches; but also between the federal and state governments. The federal government has many limitations against the states. That is the very reason why some in the U.S. have "legal" and/or "medical" cannabis available. (In quotes because it is NOT legal federally.) See also, sanctuary cities/sanctuary states.
At the very least, we don't know who is spearheading the fight until a specific "fight" is claimed.
Google anti science left and find a plethora of articles making the exact claim--but reversed.
florduh
Well-Known Member
There are anti-science cranks across the political spectrum. But there's only one Party with Senators who bring snowballs on to the Senate floor in February to disprove climate change. Or has Presidents who believe every climate scientist across the earth is participating in a "Chinese hoax". Or has Vice Presidents who deny that evolution is obviously a real thing. Especially weird if one of those Vice Presidents is in charge of a pandemic response. Viruses tend to evolve pretty rapidly.
Of course there are cranks of every political persuasion. But it seems like one Party is better at keeping them out of positions of power than the other.
Exactly.
With a President who suggests injecting bleach as cure, or maybe swallowing some LED's or some other blather. I know the states themselves have their own discretion and somewhat how the Federal govt works and is different from state control, but that doesnt mean the President and all his cronies arent sending a message out for how to deal with this. They're top of the food chain, and happen to be from one particular party.
Doesnt matter how much one tries to shift the goal posts and change whats actually being said, its still people from one party in particular suggesting bleach, for example.
Im not going to get into a debate about whether it was a joke or whatever this weeks excuse for it is, it was an example, and its one example of many.
ginolicious
Well-Known Member
Low and behold. Alberta is entering a second wave. Huge spikes occurring in the province. Not to mention they are overwhelmed with COVID testing. Not good at all. Only a matter of a few weeks before we start seeing that occurring in Ontario.
hope you're good and doing ok if youre still staying home n stuff, hope ya anxiety isnt hugely spiking!
Gunky
Well-Known Member
― Thomas E. Mann, It's Even Worse Than It Looks: How the American Constitutional System Collided With the Politics of Extremism (2012)
This is how we have a president repeatedly say we wouldn't have so many covid cases if we didn't test this much, and all we get from his party in reaction is: (crickets). This is a corrupt, thoroughly moribund party, a fact which we ignore at our peril. Right now we cannot get the virus under control in the U.S. because we have too many cases - we don't have enough tests or tracing manpower to actually find every last case, isolate, trace, etc. Because we've got 60-70 thousand new cases per day. Do the math: how are we gonna trace that many every day? So what do these repubs do: come up with a bill that strips funding for increased testing and tracing! (knocks heel of palm against forehead). Bonus savagery: federal funds will be withheld from your school district unless it opens with pupils in the classroom in time for Trump's re-election (and by the way your governor is responsible for how to do that safely during an out of control pandemic...). The republican governor of Georgia opened a lawsuit against several mayors to prevent them from requiring face masks (please see quote above regarding "conventional understanding of facts, evidence, and science").
Because, you know, if you don't take a pregnancy test you can't be pregnant...
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Its working for me so far!
Tranquility
Well-Known Member
This guy's a representative thinking extra Marines on Guam might tip it over. Guess the party. ("We don't anticipate that"....best answer ever.)
As to the position of power, I have a coffee maker that has a legally required sticker on it warning people who use it it has cancer causing chemicals one could be exposed to. In this case acrylamide. A chemical created in the roasting of the bean and that is also found in french fries, crackers, and potato chips.
Acrylamide has been found at certain concentrations to be carcinogenic. Nothing has ever been proven to be non-carcinogenic at all levels. We simply cannot do a study to show it over the time required. We have no study saying there is any association between cancer and dietary acrylamide risk.
The law was passed with Democrat support. Which side is denying science? A law was created with no science behind it because of "science!".
Here's an example of how a "science denier" like Ben Carson (innovator of surgical techniques to separate twins and first to place shunt in the womb that saved a hydrocephalic twin) by making claims of what he believes without detail:
'Science Denier' Ben Carson Denies GOP Is The Anti-Science Party
Let's get to some specific thing that is being done or not done by some specific person that causes some specific effect rather than continuing to complain about the other party. Was the death of thousands by democrats because of putting them back in nursing homes a denial of disease science? Or, did they just not know that putting a novel pandemic respiratory disease inside places packed with old folks in cold and flu season could be a problem?
For those who didn't do the search, here's a few from places not normally keen on saying good things about Republicans.
The Liberals' War on Science How politics distorts science on both ends of the spectrum
Democrats Have a Problem With Science, Too
Obviously, to anyone paying attention, the president did not say that, the press said he said that. Look to the clips. It's fake news. Also, BOTH the disinfectant inside the body and the light inside the body that were mentioned by Trump, were almost assuredly based on research that was being done.
The quotes:
"The disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute, and is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside, or almost a cleaning. It gets in the lungs"
------------
"Thinking of, if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposing we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful, light. And I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but I think you’re going to test it. And then I said: Supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way, and I think you said you’re going to test that too. Sounds interesting. And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute—one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside? Or almost a cleaning? Because, you see, it gets in the lungs and it does tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that. So you’re going to have to use medical doctors. But it sounds interesting to me. So we’ll see. But the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute, that’s pretty powerful."
Fact check: COVID-19 UV light treatment is being studied — not yet in use — in Los Angeles
Trials for inhaled version of remdesivir to start in August
Nitric Oxide Investigated as COVID-19 Treatment
Inhaled Nitric Oxide " Along with being used to treat failing lungs, nitric oxide has been found to have antiviral properties against coronaviruses. That was shown during the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak, which was caused by a coronavirus similar to the one that causes COVID-19. "
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Siebter
Less soul, more mind
Acrylamide is / was complicated, since it has been proven to be clearly carcinogenic (in certain amounts!) in animal testing, however, most scientist nowadays agree that it has little or no impact on the overall risk to get cancer by consuming coffee, french fries etc. So yeah, nice example of how members of all parties do not always follow science.
However, in this case of the pandemic the damage being done by ignoring facts costs actual lifes, every day, every hour even. This is not about some risk maybe being higher or lower. 143,032 and counting. Within half a year. Bit of a different level here.
However, in this case of the pandemic the damage being done by ignoring facts costs actual lifes, every day, every hour even. This is not about some risk maybe being higher or lower. 143,032 and counting. Within half a year. Bit of a different level here.
florduh
Well-Known Member
@Tranquility The video you posted was just a Representative saying something stupid 9 years ago. Lots of Congressmen say stupid things. That's not the same as a Senator using a snowball to "disprove" climate science. Or the head of our viral pandemic response denying that evolution is an established fact. And this dumb-dumb Congressman at least backed off his stupid statement. He's not out there claiming islands are hoaxes to this day.
Also 50% of the links you posted admitted science denial is worse on the Right. Shermer's op-ed came the closest to addressing my real point. There are actual Democratic elected officials who don't support nuclear energy. The difference is, they don't deny that fission exists.
In my opinion, this was a poor effort at establishing a false equivalency. There is some degree of science denial among politicians on both sides of the aisle. It's plainly not equivalent.
Also 50% of the links you posted admitted science denial is worse on the Right. Shermer's op-ed came the closest to addressing my real point. There are actual Democratic elected officials who don't support nuclear energy. The difference is, they don't deny that fission exists.
In my opinion, this was a poor effort at establishing a false equivalency. There is some degree of science denial among politicians on both sides of the aisle. It's plainly not equivalent.
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I was hoping I'd heard the last of Ben Carson
Are you guys still having to put with his nonsense? I thought I'd look him up as the neurosurgeon thing and his bizarre beliefs and statements always seemed to clash."Although follow-up stories were few following the Binder twins' return to Germany seven months after the operation,[93] both twins were reportedly "far from normal" two years after the procedure, with one in a vegetative state. "I will never get over this . . . Why did I have them separated?" said their mother, Theresia Binder, in a 1993 interview.[93] Neither twin was ever able to talk or care for himself, and both would eventually become institutionalized wards of the state."
Interesting, I did not know this. It looks like it paved the way for a few more successful surgeries but, also, more deaths. Ground breaking surgery and little follow up on their recovery and the rest of their lives? Fortune and glory doesnt come with failures I guess. Best to ignore it.
Move along, nothing to see here, totally off topic.
Apologies
As far as I can see, Nitric oxide isnt a disinfectant that one injects into the body. As I said, Trumps stupid statement is one example of many. That rambling mess of a statement about light and disinfectant is not a man quoting the science hes been reading, on contrary, it points more towards a man with no understanding any of this
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Siebter
Less soul, more mind
@Tranquility – In order to have a decent discussion, I'd like to ask you (politely) not to edit your posts half an hour later by adding yet another article. That way it's hard to argue with you.
Edit: While looking closer at the data being present, I think I'd like to ask all of us to keep a certain order here. Politely. Just makes no sense.
Edit: While looking closer at the data being present, I think I'd like to ask all of us to keep a certain order here. Politely. Just makes no sense.
I was hoping I'd heard the last of Ben Carson
"Although follow-up stories were few following the Binder twins' return to Germany seven months after the operation,[93] both twins were reportedly "far from normal" two years after the procedure, with one in a vegetative state. "I will never get over this . . . Why did I have them separated?" said their mother, Theresia Binder, in a 1993 interview.[93] Neither twin was ever able to talk or care for himself, and both would eventually become institutionalized wards of the state."
Interesting, I did not know this. It looks like it paved the way for a few more successful surgeries but, also, more deaths. Ground breaking surgery and little follow up on their recovery and the rest of their lives? Fortune and glory doesnt come with failures I guess. Best to ignore it.
Move along, nothing to see here, totally off topic.
Apologies
I’m blown away by Carson’s beliefs and statements. But I only put so much faith in physicians.
Anyway, it’s possible he’s good at one thing and should stick to that. I’m followed by a great team of physicians and I assume some are religious but that’s not my concern or business. However, I’m not sure how one of my specialists could reconcile being a young earth creationist with caring for someone with my condition.
Totally. Just neuroscientist conjures up a bit more in my head than just a physician I guess. Not that being 'just a physician' is really a thing, but, you know
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