Dr. Plutonious
Well-Known Member
Seems like there is some interest in this over the forum. I'll start it off.
I'm taking Wanderlei by early TKO. Why? Because Wanderlei's problem has always been strong strikers who could abuse his wild style.
The only two instances of Wanderlei being shut down by grappling are an early loss to Tito (prior to Wanderlei training full time) and to Ricardo Arona, one of the fiercest competitive grapplers to ever switch to MMA. And Wanderlei managed to have some very impressive moments on the ground against him in their rematch.
Why don't I think Chael can blanket Wanderlei? Wanderlei is incredibly hard to hold down. Many guys have hit takedowns on Wanderlei, not many have done anything with them. Wanderlei is an incredible scrambler. While submissions is something he isn't exactly known for, he has a very active guard for the purposes of scrambling and has shown pretty decent skill in grabbing guillotines. Chael's submission defence has definitely improved over the years but his style of posturing up to drop GNP has always allowed a lot of room for his opponents to work. If better, stronger, grapplers who focus on ground control have barely been able to hold Wanderlei down, I just don't see Chael doing it either. Even Werdum, one of the most decorated BJJ black belts in the game, has talked about sparring and rolling with Wanderlei and how incredibly hard it is to keep him controlled on the ground. That's coming from a guy who has a guard so famous that no one has chosen to go to the ground with him since his UFC return.
Chael has improved his boxing. His standup is much better than it used to be, even managed to land some good shots on Bisping on the feet. But Chael isn't a footwork heavy, rangy striker. He comes straight at you long enough to set up a takedown. Unfortunately for Chael, this fight is at 205 which is Wanderlei's best weight class. He's going to do what he can to keep Wanderlei on his back and might even win the first round with it. But Wanderlei is going to be able to scramble, get out from under Chael, and beat him up on the feet.
I think Chael lacking TRT for this fight is also going to play a role. He is going to come in physically weaker than he has in the past. Which doesn't bode well in fighting someone as physically powerful as Wanderlei.
Wanderlei minimizes damage with his defensive guard, makes scrambles, and start to land on Chael while on the feet to a TKO stoppage. Chael has ALWAYS wilted once things are clearly not in his favour and it's going to happen again when he faces one of the most aggressive finishers the sport has seen. Wanderlei may be getting old, but the question surrounding Wanderlei now of days has always been his chin, not his grappling.
I'm taking Wanderlei by early TKO. Why? Because Wanderlei's problem has always been strong strikers who could abuse his wild style.
The only two instances of Wanderlei being shut down by grappling are an early loss to Tito (prior to Wanderlei training full time) and to Ricardo Arona, one of the fiercest competitive grapplers to ever switch to MMA. And Wanderlei managed to have some very impressive moments on the ground against him in their rematch.
Why don't I think Chael can blanket Wanderlei? Wanderlei is incredibly hard to hold down. Many guys have hit takedowns on Wanderlei, not many have done anything with them. Wanderlei is an incredible scrambler. While submissions is something he isn't exactly known for, he has a very active guard for the purposes of scrambling and has shown pretty decent skill in grabbing guillotines. Chael's submission defence has definitely improved over the years but his style of posturing up to drop GNP has always allowed a lot of room for his opponents to work. If better, stronger, grapplers who focus on ground control have barely been able to hold Wanderlei down, I just don't see Chael doing it either. Even Werdum, one of the most decorated BJJ black belts in the game, has talked about sparring and rolling with Wanderlei and how incredibly hard it is to keep him controlled on the ground. That's coming from a guy who has a guard so famous that no one has chosen to go to the ground with him since his UFC return.
Chael has improved his boxing. His standup is much better than it used to be, even managed to land some good shots on Bisping on the feet. But Chael isn't a footwork heavy, rangy striker. He comes straight at you long enough to set up a takedown. Unfortunately for Chael, this fight is at 205 which is Wanderlei's best weight class. He's going to do what he can to keep Wanderlei on his back and might even win the first round with it. But Wanderlei is going to be able to scramble, get out from under Chael, and beat him up on the feet.
I think Chael lacking TRT for this fight is also going to play a role. He is going to come in physically weaker than he has in the past. Which doesn't bode well in fighting someone as physically powerful as Wanderlei.
Wanderlei minimizes damage with his defensive guard, makes scrambles, and start to land on Chael while on the feet to a TKO stoppage. Chael has ALWAYS wilted once things are clearly not in his favour and it's going to happen again when he faces one of the most aggressive finishers the sport has seen. Wanderlei may be getting old, but the question surrounding Wanderlei now of days has always been his chin, not his grappling.