OK Friends and Neighbors, I just got back from a visit to TV. I went over to get the latest upgrades done to the Beta unit (only partially successful, I'll be going back again early next week). I got a detailed update on a lot of issues and projects going on, including of course Cera production. The short of it is, IMO everything is going as you might expect and is in control. There have been a few problems that impact delivery, but I think there's no big deals going on.
First off, I got a copy of the replacement battery to test. It is the Panasonic CGR18650CH we were speculating about the other day, mine is now on charge for testing later. I'll test it later, but given it's reputation I expect it to do quite well.
The details of the delay are not really important and are even likely to change some as things get resolved in turn. In production planning such products, often a tool called 'critical path analysis' is used. You plot things out against the longest lead time part used. If we were making cars, that might be the engine block. We'd start on the left side of a huge board with the casting of the block, then draw a line to the right labeling each step (aging, machining, inspection, heat treating, and so on). From above or below this 'critical path' we add pistons, bolts, spark plugs and so on to complete the engine. Then add the body, wheels and so on in stages as the line goes right until it ends up getting fuel and being started up and driven away.
For Cera the critical path is the ceramic body. And there lies the major hang up (since having other stuff doesn't give you a shippable product without the body). Those parts are running late due to several factors related to the sole source nature and this being the initial run of parts made with the unique tooling. To get a part we need to make it using the tools, then harden it (often called 'green' at this stage, it's dry but not yet ceramic). It's then inspected (to be sure the material is correct and dimensions and other factors within limits). Then it gets machined to final shape (the bodies were getting the narrow part machined in this week after all the holes had been done and 'signed off on' (passed by Inspection) as I understand it). They got word the parts passed and are now being final fired (called several things in the industry IIRC) which will bond them into ceramics and end the ability to work with the material. This process takes nearly a week, the parts are expected roughly one week from now. Also left to be done were several steps on the mouthpiece (bevels) which seem to be slightly ahead of the body piece so they should be ready at the same time. There's really little way around vendor problems in such cases, there's only one set of tools and often only one vendor that can do the work, which is why it's called 'soul source'. Not the best situation to be in, but it's very common. It's assumed that once the production is running to schedule this will no longer be an issue. Again, not much you can do about it when the guy you're depending on has to rework some parts or has other issues. His delay becomes TV's delay and our wait.
They're making other parts of course, sub assemblies ready for final assembly once the ceramic is in. But it does no good to have heaters for carts if there's no bodies to put them in. The good news here is the Ti parts are on schedule and should be coming in starting next week so Ti units should be available at the same time as the SS ones.
Switches are another rub. The 'best switch in the world for the job' is not as available as they were lead to believe it seems. Production is scheduled for it but it's going to be a while. Rather than delay the product they've pushed up an alternative momentary switch they were planning for oil systems. Originally it was an option for later, but now it's being planned for initial shipments. This is a very nice 'dome top' button of the same size. It should work fine, and might be the best call for oils, but for herb it's going to be the same 'have to hold it on' issue as before. The plan is to ship with the momentary switch cap and then send the latching cap out when they happen (the owner keeps both). You'll end up with a free switch upgrade, just backwards. IMO no big deal, but some might differ with that 'take' and might want to consider canceling and waiting? I'd rather have the momentary switch to use than wait. I assume most guys feel the same?
There's also a lively discussion going on on what to do about the safety switch. One of the models they showed me had the slider replaced by a two piece plastic rod with magnets in them. For safe transit you'd back the battery cap off and insert the rod. After my initial 'I'd rather have an easier and faster switch when running oil (sucker gets going fast.....) it was pointed out that the momentary switch on the bottom was probably more useful......time will tell there I think. Using this switch is calling for a different assembly procedure, but that's well in process.
I also got to see some of the prototype skins. Black and clear at present. Thicker than I'd thought (nearly 1/8 inch), some serious protection there. I got a cover for just the cap part (tooling to cut the holes in the main piece aren't done), it looks very promising WRT controlling the heat. Remember I put an inch or so long tube on the herb cart for my very very long (slow) sessions so the MP would be cool? Now there's no need of that since the cap is insulated. While at first the idea didn't appeal to me, it's kinda growing on me now that I see it.
Lots of repair work to the shop itself going on still, some new doors going on, damaged wood has been replaced and needs some paint in places, new work stations set up, lots going on. As I was leaving I brought up videos by way of a joke, suggesting that Noah get cracking on some more videos once their cameras and stuff are back up and running only to be told he's already on extended leave with his family as had been planned. They got the design 'put to bed' by Christmas and he's out of the area somewhere making up for all those 18 hours days he spent at the shop. So the job of 'Heroic Toker' to star in upcoming videos is open, those who fancy themselves real champs at 'huge clouds' might want to update their resume and pass it on?
I'm sure I've missed something, but the theme is I think they're running a little late (and really less than average if you consider Cloud, the various D9 products and the like?) but noting alarming nor frankly out of line from what what an experienced guy might expect to crop up. This is real cutting edge stuff after all. One source for the best heater wire, one sole source for ceramics, little flexibility with machine shops making metal parts and so on. The fact the design depends on some very precise dimensions doesn't help yield or delivery.
I also got a kick out of the way new ideas are very much alive and thriving 'in the shop'. Cera is not the final product I'm sure.
My best guess is this time next week the late parts will be in or 'in the mail'. Assembly of final units should be fast (they're staging sub assemblies now) meaning they should be working their way down the ship list the following week? As I see it everyone is on the same page, they want it shipped ASAP, but it has to be done right. I think that's exactly what's happening. Doesn't make the waiting any easier, of course, but IMO it's happening.
And please remember, these are not official predictions, let alone promises or commitments, but my personal 'best guess' based on what I know of the process and my past experiences with such fun stuff.
Regards and best wishes to all brave (or bored) enough to have read this far.
OF
Edit: Spelling correction, "sole" for "soul" in two places. OF