The 2016 Presidential Candidates Thread
- Thread starter CarolKing
- Start date
howie105
Well-Known Member
I think Bernie needs to be a little more careful about how he talks about the south, and more importantly, how he talks, directly or indirectly, about the Democratic Party's most loyal constituency. I get that black people don't tend to vote for him, but he diminishes or discounts them at his own peril.......Not being direct is a big part of the problems we are facing as a nation. I would much rather know what is actually going on with a candidate then filling in the blanks with spin as I make a decision on who to vote for, regardless of party or candidate.
cybrguy
Putin is a War Criminal
I would be perfectly happy to hear Bernie tell us directly exactly what he meant by the statement above. I think he needs to. I don't want to have to fill in the blanks either.
howie105
Well-Known Member
grokit
well-worn member
I don't think he even has security, maybe a bodyguard or two.
No secret service protection until the generals
Drew 27,000 in manhattan
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Adobewan
Well-Known Member
Interesting read.
Bernie Sanders Will Become Democratic Nominee Even If Clinton Leads in Delegates
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-g...-if-clinton-leads-in-delegates_b_9657952.html
Some Highlights:
-Clinton’s FBI investigation could lead to indictment.
- Anyone fearing Trump must vote for Bernie Sanders, primarily because he defeats Trump by a wider margin than Clinton.
- Bernie’s popularity among younger voters and seventh straight victory, highlight why superdelegates and Democratic Party bosses will eventually side with Sanders over Clinton.
-The same dynamic was witnessed eight years ago. Because Barack Obama wasn’t on the ballot in Michigan (interesting things take place when running against Clinton), Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2008. When superdelegates began siding with Obama that year, The Guardian wrote “Most unnerving for Clinton is the trickle of superdelegates who have defected from her corner to Obama’s.” After leading Obama by a 2 to 1 ratio in superdelgates, the reasoning for these party bosses leaving Clinton was summed up by an Arizona Democratic Party official quoted in The New York Times:
“Senator Barack Obama is strengthening the Democratic Party by bringing in new voters, young and old, into the process,” Ms. Fernandez said in a statement released by the Obama campaign. “ I believe Senator Obama has the best ability to win the White House in November and lead this country forward.”
Ms. Fernandez was Mr. Obama’ s 241st superdelegate endorsement...
Bernie Sanders is the epitome of this observation.
Bernie Sanders Will Become Democratic Nominee Even If Clinton Leads in Delegates
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-g...-if-clinton-leads-in-delegates_b_9657952.html
Some Highlights:
-Clinton’s FBI investigation could lead to indictment.
- Anyone fearing Trump must vote for Bernie Sanders, primarily because he defeats Trump by a wider margin than Clinton.
- Bernie’s popularity among younger voters and seventh straight victory, highlight why superdelegates and Democratic Party bosses will eventually side with Sanders over Clinton.
-The same dynamic was witnessed eight years ago. Because Barack Obama wasn’t on the ballot in Michigan (interesting things take place when running against Clinton), Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2008. When superdelegates began siding with Obama that year, The Guardian wrote “Most unnerving for Clinton is the trickle of superdelegates who have defected from her corner to Obama’s.” After leading Obama by a 2 to 1 ratio in superdelgates, the reasoning for these party bosses leaving Clinton was summed up by an Arizona Democratic Party official quoted in The New York Times:
“Senator Barack Obama is strengthening the Democratic Party by bringing in new voters, young and old, into the process,” Ms. Fernandez said in a statement released by the Obama campaign. “ I believe Senator Obama has the best ability to win the White House in November and lead this country forward.”
Ms. Fernandez was Mr. Obama’ s 241st superdelegate endorsement...
Bernie Sanders is the epitome of this observation.
Nesta
Well-Known Member
I tried to attend this rally but didn't have the patience to deal with the crowds trying to enter Washington Sq. Park. It was well behaved mayhem.
I wanted to hear the full Sanders speech rather than the TV soundbites, but ended up watching it via streaming video @ home. He spoke for a full hour & one of his points was how ridiculous it is that people are being arrested & their lives drastically affected for using marijuana. Especially compared to the damage done by white collar/Wall St crime, which usually goes unpunished.
What stood out for me, in the hour or so milling around, was the joyous, positive vibe from the mostly young crowd. I hope they're right- I felt that same, nearly religious euphoria from the early Obama supporters & watched as it grew. But I also felt it while working for Eugene McCarthy & George McGovern. Perhaps McCarthy & McGovern were ahead of their time but they went down hard.
At least Bernie is pushing the conversation way to the left- & it surprises me how receptive people have been. I think it's a good sign for the future.
Gunky
Well-Known Member
That is a very silly article which glosses over the fact that vote tally of Obama and Clinton was very close. This time it isn't. The piece makes a number of mis-statements, such as saying Pope Francis invited Bernie. He didn't. In fact it appears Bernie invited himself to a conference. The person organizing the conference said so and was then shushed by a higher up who claimed to have invited Bernie. The fact that he is going to the Vatican on the eve of the New York primary should tell you that he no longer thinks he has any chance of winning the nomination. New York is make or break for the tiny shot he still has at the nomination.
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grokit
well-worn member
Bernie Sanders Receives Two More Major Endorsements
"After considering the biggest challenges facing our nation and the future I want for my children and our country, I have decided to become the first member of the Senate to support my colleague Bernie Sanders for president."
NYC’s @TWULocal100 — legendary union local with 38K members working subways, bus lines — endorses @BernieSanders. pic.twitter.com/MyCXSJEFHE
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/13/opinion/why-im-supporting-bernie-sanders.html
http://www.nationofchange.org/news/2016/04/13/bernie-sanders-receives-two-major-endorsements/
"After considering the biggest challenges facing our nation and the future I want for my children and our country, I have decided to become the first member of the Senate to support my colleague Bernie Sanders for president."
NYC’s @TWULocal100 — legendary union local with 38K members working subways, bus lines — endorses @BernieSanders. pic.twitter.com/MyCXSJEFHE
~ John Nichols (@NicholsUprising) April 13, 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/13/opinion/why-im-supporting-bernie-sanders.html
http://www.nationofchange.org/news/2016/04/13/bernie-sanders-receives-two-major-endorsements/
howie105
Well-Known Member
I don't think he even has security, maybe a bodyguard or two.
No secret service protection until the generals
Drew 27,000 in manhattan
Oops sorry about that, I went by a newspaper account in my local paper and I forgot what a bunch of idiots those idiots are.
CarolKing
Singer of songs and a vapor connoisseur
Trump had secret service at his events. The primary candidates get secret service.
I'm tired of all the candidates surrogates and candidate - democrats and republicans throwing words around without really caring how it sounds like. Some of it is just too over the top. I'm hearing corporate whores, gustapo tactics, like Union thugs and it goes on and on. Get back to the issues.
I'm tired of all the candidates surrogates and candidate - democrats and republicans throwing words around without really caring how it sounds like. Some of it is just too over the top. I'm hearing corporate whores, gustapo tactics, like Union thugs and it goes on and on. Get back to the issues.
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grokit
well-worn member
I stand corrected, but bernie didn't get it until january 30.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...-sanders-to-receive-secret-service-protection
Farid
Well-Known Member
That was a Hell of a debate. Really solidified any of the doubts I had previously had about Sanders not having what it takes to assert himself. I also felt Sanders came out looking more organized and less "old man-ish" than he had in previous debates.
When Libya came up, I kept thinking Clinton should be careful about defending the deposition of Qaddafi. If the American people "demanded democracy" the way the people of Libya supposedly did, it would be politicians like her with the spear shoved up their ass.
When Syria came up it seemed like CNN changed the subject quick. I suspect that might be because the US policy did a major flip following major victories by the Syrian government, and the media directly represented that. Going from Assad must go to discussing a transitional government, to finally showing positive footage of the Syrian Army fighting ISIS. I suspect that since the topic is so recent that CNN has not solidified its stance on the issue, and thus avoided the subject.
Listening to Sanders defend the Palestinians was incredibly moving. He's the only candidate, given his Jewish background, who can criticize Israel without being demonized by the Israel lobby. Often times any criticism of Israel is met with accusations of anti semitisim by the Israel lobby. Since Sanders is Jewish that accusation is much harder to use against him.
When Libya came up, I kept thinking Clinton should be careful about defending the deposition of Qaddafi. If the American people "demanded democracy" the way the people of Libya supposedly did, it would be politicians like her with the spear shoved up their ass.
When Syria came up it seemed like CNN changed the subject quick. I suspect that might be because the US policy did a major flip following major victories by the Syrian government, and the media directly represented that. Going from Assad must go to discussing a transitional government, to finally showing positive footage of the Syrian Army fighting ISIS. I suspect that since the topic is so recent that CNN has not solidified its stance on the issue, and thus avoided the subject.
Listening to Sanders defend the Palestinians was incredibly moving. He's the only candidate, given his Jewish background, who can criticize Israel without being demonized by the Israel lobby. Often times any criticism of Israel is met with accusations of anti semitisim by the Israel lobby. Since Sanders is Jewish that accusation is much harder to use against him.
BD9
Well-Known Member
Posting here is such a bad idea since I'm still so new......... 
When Ted Cruz gets introduced by someone who has warmed up the crowd by saying homosexuals should be stoned to death and Donald Trump is obsessed with the size of his hands, I say no thank you.
I was a Hillary supporter until it became obvious that she is running more for her ego and less for doing the peoples work. Then she pandered her uterus, and I was done.
Bernie Sanders is an honest and just man. He is sincere and humble. He cares about 'we the people' and not 'I' the man. I feel he can bridge the partisan gap and actually get some things done.
I may be wrong but from what I have heard and seen, congressional voting record, he's my candidate.
Plus, the whole legalize
thing.....
When Ted Cruz gets introduced by someone who has warmed up the crowd by saying homosexuals should be stoned to death and Donald Trump is obsessed with the size of his hands, I say no thank you.
I was a Hillary supporter until it became obvious that she is running more for her ego and less for doing the peoples work. Then she pandered her uterus, and I was done.
Bernie Sanders is an honest and just man. He is sincere and humble. He cares about 'we the people' and not 'I' the man. I feel he can bridge the partisan gap and actually get some things done.
I may be wrong but from what I have heard and seen, congressional voting record, he's my candidate.
Plus, the whole legalize
thing.....
His_Highness
In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king
AP FACT CHECK: Clinton vs. Sanders on Wall Street
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ap-fact-check-clinton-vs-sanders-wall-street-024446295--election.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ap-fact-check-clinton-vs-sanders-wall-street-024446295--election.html
cybrguy
Putin is a War Criminal
Good on ya, Laura...
This Unlikely Former First Lady Hints at Supporting Clinton Over Trump
April 10, 2016, 4:37 PM EDT
Here’s why.
There is already a substantial list of Republicans who would rather stay home on Election Day, or even vote for Hillary Clinton, than cast their ballot for Donald Trump.
Some are saying that Laura Bush can now be counted in that category. When the former First Lady, and wife of George W. Bush, appeared at last week’s Women in the World summit, she outlined the qualities she thinks make a good presidential candidate. “I want our next president—whoever he or she might be—to be somebody who is interested in women in Afghanistan and who will continue U.S. policies,” Bush said. She added that the candidate should “pay attention to our history, and know what’s happened before and know specifically how we can continue to do the good things that we do around the world.”
Though she was careful not to name names, some news outlets, including the Telegraph, have speculated that she was referring to Hillary Clinton who worked to improve lives of women in developing countries during her time as Secretary and State. Clinton also wrote a cover endorsement for We Are Afghan Women: Voices of Hope, Bush’s recently published book.
The U.S. has a tendency “to become sort of isolationist and xenophobic,” Bush continued. “I understand that Americans are angry and frustrated but we do not need someone in the Oval Office who mirrors and inflames our anger and frustration.”
Again the former First Lady did not specify any candidate. However, it’s easy to interpret this as a criticism of Trump. His comments about Mexicans and Muslims have been deemed by many as isolationist and xenophobic, and he has been accused of exploiting voters’ anger and frustration to rise to the rank of frontrunner.
A spokesperson for the former First Family denied speculation that Bush was supporting Clinton, telling CBS, “They are definitely trying to make this into something it isn’t.”
This Unlikely Former First Lady Hints at Supporting Clinton Over Trump
April 10, 2016, 4:37 PM EDT
Here’s why.
There is already a substantial list of Republicans who would rather stay home on Election Day, or even vote for Hillary Clinton, than cast their ballot for Donald Trump.
Some are saying that Laura Bush can now be counted in that category. When the former First Lady, and wife of George W. Bush, appeared at last week’s Women in the World summit, she outlined the qualities she thinks make a good presidential candidate. “I want our next president—whoever he or she might be—to be somebody who is interested in women in Afghanistan and who will continue U.S. policies,” Bush said. She added that the candidate should “pay attention to our history, and know what’s happened before and know specifically how we can continue to do the good things that we do around the world.”
Though she was careful not to name names, some news outlets, including the Telegraph, have speculated that she was referring to Hillary Clinton who worked to improve lives of women in developing countries during her time as Secretary and State. Clinton also wrote a cover endorsement for We Are Afghan Women: Voices of Hope, Bush’s recently published book.
The U.S. has a tendency “to become sort of isolationist and xenophobic,” Bush continued. “I understand that Americans are angry and frustrated but we do not need someone in the Oval Office who mirrors and inflames our anger and frustration.”
Again the former First Lady did not specify any candidate. However, it’s easy to interpret this as a criticism of Trump. His comments about Mexicans and Muslims have been deemed by many as isolationist and xenophobic, and he has been accused of exploiting voters’ anger and frustration to rise to the rank of frontrunner.
A spokesperson for the former First Family denied speculation that Bush was supporting Clinton, telling CBS, “They are definitely trying to make this into something it isn’t.”
lwien
Well-Known Member
Yet there are many Israelis within Israel that totally agree with Sanders stance on this issue as well as being totally against the continuing expansion of Israeli settlements but I don't hear them being accused of anti-Semitism.
Fucking politics drives me crazy and it's not just the politics here in the US.
cybrguy
Putin is a War Criminal
Clinton Is Winning The States That Look Like The Democratic Party
By Nate Silver
“Secretary Clinton cleaned our clock in the Deep South, no question about it,” Bernie Sanders said during Thursday night’s Democratic debate in Brooklyn. “That is the most conservative part of this great country,” he continued. “But you know what, we’re out of the Deep South now. And we’re moving up.”
I have a few problems with this line of argument, which seems to imply that Democratic voters in the Deep South don’t reflect the larger Democratic electorate. (The remarks Thursday night echo previous comments made by Sanders and his campaign.) Consider Sanders’s reference to the term “Deep South,” which traditionally describes Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina: These are five of the only six states, along with Maryland, where at least a quarter of the population is black. Given the United States’ history of disenfranchising black voters — not to mention the importance of black voters to Democrats in November — it’s dicey for Sanders to diminish Clinton’s wins there.
But the Deep South isn’t Sanders’s only issue. His problems in the rest of the South are what really dooms him. Clinton’s largest net delegate gains over Sanders came from Texas (+72) and Florida (+68), two states that are within the South as the Census Bureau (and most other people) define it. Clinton also cleaned Sanders’s clock in Virginia and North Carolina. Overall, Clinton gained a net of 155 delegates on Sanders in the five Deep South states, but she also added 211 delegates to her margin in the rest of the region.
DELEGATE COUNT
REGION CLINTON SANDERS NET
Deep South* 225 70 Clinton +155
Other Southern states 493 282 Clinton +211
Rest of country 589 745 Sanders +156
Overall 1,307 1,097 Clinton +210
Clinton has dominated Sanders in the South
* Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina
Source: FiveThirtyEight Delegate Tracker, The Green Papers
In addition to being important to the Democratic Party’s electoral present and future, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Texas are quite diverse. They’re diverse ideologically — Miami and Austin aren’t exactly “the most conservative part” of the country — and they’re diverse racially. They contain not only a substantial number of African-Americans but also Hispanics and, increasingly, Asian-American voters.
In fact, these states are among the most demographically representative of the diverse Obama coalition that Clinton or Sanders will have to rely on in November.
Although it will be a couple of decades before the electorate as a whole is majority-minority, the Democratic vote is already getting there. In 2012, only 55 percent of President Obama’s voters were white, according to the national exit poll. Our demographic projections of this November’s electorate, which account for population growth since 2012, calculate that the white share of the Democratic vote will tick down another percentage point, to 54 percent. The rest of the Democratic vote will be black (24 percent), Hispanic (15 percent), or belong to Asian or other races (7 percent), according to our projections.
So let’s take those projections as being maximally representative of the broader Democratic electorate as it stands today. In which primary or caucus states has turnout come closest to those ratios?
In 21 states to have voted so far, we have data on this from exit polls. See here for Virginia, for example, where Democratic turnout was 63 percent white, 26 percent black, 7 percent Hispanic and 5 percent Asian or other when it voted on Super Tuesday. That’s pretty close to the Democratic electorate overall, although with too few Hispanic voters. In the other 29 states — those that haven’t voted yet or where no exit poll was conducted — I’ll estimate the Democratic electorate based on our demographic projections, with an adjustment for the fact that the Democrats who vote in primaries are somewhat whiter than those who vote in November.1
Then I’ll calculate the root-mean-square error (RMSE) for each state — a measure of the difference between the demographics of its primary or caucus turnout and the projected Democratic electorate in November. A lower RMSE is better for our purposes, because it means the state’s demographics are more representative of the national Democratic coalition.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY/CAUCUS ELECTORATE
STATE WHITE BLACK HISP./ LATINO ASIAN/ OTHER RMSE* OUTCOME
New Jersey 57% 26% 11% 6% 5%
Illinois 58 28 9 5 8 Clinton +2
Florida 48 28 20 5 9 Clinton +31
New York 61 20 16 3 9
Virginia 63 26 7 5 12 Clinton +29
Nevada 59 13 19 8 13 Clinton +5
North Carolina 62 31 3 4 16 Clinton +14
Maryland 47 39 8 6 18
Tennessee 63 32 2 3 18 Clinton +34
Arkansas 67 27 3 3 18 Clinton +37
Michigan 68 23 3 6 18 Sanders +2
Pennsylvania 70 19 8 3 19
California 49 11 23 17 19
Delaware 69 24 3 3 20
Texas 43 19 32 7 21 Clinton +32
Arizona 62 7 25 6 21 Clinton +15
Kentucky 72 21 4 4 22
Missouri 72 21 3 4 22 Clinton +0
Connecticut 74 15 7 3 24
Ohio 74 21 2 3 24 Clinton +14
Alaska 66 5 11 17 25 Sanders +59
Oklahoma 74 14 4 9 25 Sanders +10
Indiana 76 13 8 3 26
Colorado 72 4 16 8 27 Sanders +17
Kansas 78 10 7 5 29 Sanders +36
Washington 74 4 10 12 29 Sanders +46
District of Columbia 45 49 4 2 29
Utah 76 4 11 9 30 Sanders +57
Rhode Island 79 9 8 4 30
Georgia 38 51 7 3 33 Clinton +43
Wyoming 80 4 10 6 33 Sanders +11
New Mexico 45 3 39 13 34
Idaho 80 3 11 5 34 Sanders +57
Minnesota 82 9 3 6 34 Sanders +23
Wisconsin 83 10 3 4 34 Sanders +14
Montana 82 4 6 9 36
Alabama 40 54 1 5 36 Clinton +59
South Dakota 82 3 6 10 36
Nebraska 85 8 3 3 37 Sanders +14
Massachusetts 85 4 6 5 38 Clinton +1
North Dakota 86 4 4 6 39
West Virginia 88 5 5 3 40
Oregon 87 1 4 7 42
South Carolina 35 61 2 2 44 Clinton +47
Iowa 91 3 4 2 44 Clinton +0
Hawaii 45 2 8 46 46 Sanders +43
New Hampshire 93 2 1 4 47 Sanders +22
Louisiana 26 63 8 2 49 Clinton +48
Maine 95 2 1 2 49 Sanders +29
Vermont 95 1 0 3 50 Sanders +72
Mississippi 24 71 1 4 58 Clinton +66
Projected Democratic electorate in November 54 24 15 7 —
* Root-mean-square error of turnout as compared with projected Democratic electorate in November
Source: Exit polls, FiveThirtyEight demographic projections
NEXT
By Nate Silver
“Secretary Clinton cleaned our clock in the Deep South, no question about it,” Bernie Sanders said during Thursday night’s Democratic debate in Brooklyn. “That is the most conservative part of this great country,” he continued. “But you know what, we’re out of the Deep South now. And we’re moving up.”
I have a few problems with this line of argument, which seems to imply that Democratic voters in the Deep South don’t reflect the larger Democratic electorate. (The remarks Thursday night echo previous comments made by Sanders and his campaign.) Consider Sanders’s reference to the term “Deep South,” which traditionally describes Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina: These are five of the only six states, along with Maryland, where at least a quarter of the population is black. Given the United States’ history of disenfranchising black voters — not to mention the importance of black voters to Democrats in November — it’s dicey for Sanders to diminish Clinton’s wins there.
But the Deep South isn’t Sanders’s only issue. His problems in the rest of the South are what really dooms him. Clinton’s largest net delegate gains over Sanders came from Texas (+72) and Florida (+68), two states that are within the South as the Census Bureau (and most other people) define it. Clinton also cleaned Sanders’s clock in Virginia and North Carolina. Overall, Clinton gained a net of 155 delegates on Sanders in the five Deep South states, but she also added 211 delegates to her margin in the rest of the region.
DELEGATE COUNT
REGION CLINTON SANDERS NET
Deep South* 225 70 Clinton +155
Other Southern states 493 282 Clinton +211
Rest of country 589 745 Sanders +156
Overall 1,307 1,097 Clinton +210
Clinton has dominated Sanders in the South
* Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina
Source: FiveThirtyEight Delegate Tracker, The Green Papers
In addition to being important to the Democratic Party’s electoral present and future, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Texas are quite diverse. They’re diverse ideologically — Miami and Austin aren’t exactly “the most conservative part” of the country — and they’re diverse racially. They contain not only a substantial number of African-Americans but also Hispanics and, increasingly, Asian-American voters.
In fact, these states are among the most demographically representative of the diverse Obama coalition that Clinton or Sanders will have to rely on in November.
Although it will be a couple of decades before the electorate as a whole is majority-minority, the Democratic vote is already getting there. In 2012, only 55 percent of President Obama’s voters were white, according to the national exit poll. Our demographic projections of this November’s electorate, which account for population growth since 2012, calculate that the white share of the Democratic vote will tick down another percentage point, to 54 percent. The rest of the Democratic vote will be black (24 percent), Hispanic (15 percent), or belong to Asian or other races (7 percent), according to our projections.
So let’s take those projections as being maximally representative of the broader Democratic electorate as it stands today. In which primary or caucus states has turnout come closest to those ratios?
In 21 states to have voted so far, we have data on this from exit polls. See here for Virginia, for example, where Democratic turnout was 63 percent white, 26 percent black, 7 percent Hispanic and 5 percent Asian or other when it voted on Super Tuesday. That’s pretty close to the Democratic electorate overall, although with too few Hispanic voters. In the other 29 states — those that haven’t voted yet or where no exit poll was conducted — I’ll estimate the Democratic electorate based on our demographic projections, with an adjustment for the fact that the Democrats who vote in primaries are somewhat whiter than those who vote in November.1
Then I’ll calculate the root-mean-square error (RMSE) for each state — a measure of the difference between the demographics of its primary or caucus turnout and the projected Democratic electorate in November. A lower RMSE is better for our purposes, because it means the state’s demographics are more representative of the national Democratic coalition.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY/CAUCUS ELECTORATE
STATE WHITE BLACK HISP./ LATINO ASIAN/ OTHER RMSE* OUTCOME
New Jersey 57% 26% 11% 6% 5%
Illinois 58 28 9 5 8 Clinton +2
Florida 48 28 20 5 9 Clinton +31
New York 61 20 16 3 9
Virginia 63 26 7 5 12 Clinton +29
Nevada 59 13 19 8 13 Clinton +5
North Carolina 62 31 3 4 16 Clinton +14
Maryland 47 39 8 6 18
Tennessee 63 32 2 3 18 Clinton +34
Arkansas 67 27 3 3 18 Clinton +37
Michigan 68 23 3 6 18 Sanders +2
Pennsylvania 70 19 8 3 19
California 49 11 23 17 19
Delaware 69 24 3 3 20
Texas 43 19 32 7 21 Clinton +32
Arizona 62 7 25 6 21 Clinton +15
Kentucky 72 21 4 4 22
Missouri 72 21 3 4 22 Clinton +0
Connecticut 74 15 7 3 24
Ohio 74 21 2 3 24 Clinton +14
Alaska 66 5 11 17 25 Sanders +59
Oklahoma 74 14 4 9 25 Sanders +10
Indiana 76 13 8 3 26
Colorado 72 4 16 8 27 Sanders +17
Kansas 78 10 7 5 29 Sanders +36
Washington 74 4 10 12 29 Sanders +46
District of Columbia 45 49 4 2 29
Utah 76 4 11 9 30 Sanders +57
Rhode Island 79 9 8 4 30
Georgia 38 51 7 3 33 Clinton +43
Wyoming 80 4 10 6 33 Sanders +11
New Mexico 45 3 39 13 34
Idaho 80 3 11 5 34 Sanders +57
Minnesota 82 9 3 6 34 Sanders +23
Wisconsin 83 10 3 4 34 Sanders +14
Montana 82 4 6 9 36
Alabama 40 54 1 5 36 Clinton +59
South Dakota 82 3 6 10 36
Nebraska 85 8 3 3 37 Sanders +14
Massachusetts 85 4 6 5 38 Clinton +1
North Dakota 86 4 4 6 39
West Virginia 88 5 5 3 40
Oregon 87 1 4 7 42
South Carolina 35 61 2 2 44 Clinton +47
Iowa 91 3 4 2 44 Clinton +0
Hawaii 45 2 8 46 46 Sanders +43
New Hampshire 93 2 1 4 47 Sanders +22
Louisiana 26 63 8 2 49 Clinton +48
Maine 95 2 1 2 49 Sanders +29
Vermont 95 1 0 3 50 Sanders +72
Mississippi 24 71 1 4 58 Clinton +66
Projected Democratic electorate in November 54 24 15 7 —
* Root-mean-square error of turnout as compared with projected Democratic electorate in November
Source: Exit polls, FiveThirtyEight demographic projections
NEXT
cybrguy
Putin is a War Criminal
LAST
The most representative state by this measure is New Jersey. We expect its primary electorate to be about 57 percent white, 26 percent black, 11 percent Hispanic and 6 percent Asian or other, quite close to the national Democratic electorate. New Jersey won’t vote until June 7, although Clinton was well ahead when the last poll was released there in February.
After New Jersey comes Illinois, which Clinton won narrowly — and then Florida, where Clinton won going away. Then there’s New York, which votes Tuesday, and where Clinton is 15 percentage points ahead in our polling average. Virginia, another Southern state, ranks as the next most representative; Clinton won it easily. Then there’s Nevada, another Clinton state, before we go back to the South to North Carolina, also won by Clinton. The next group of four states (Maryland, Tennessee, Arkansas and Michigan) are roughly tied and include some further representation for the South, along with, finally, one state (Michigan) that Sanders won.
In other words, Clinton has won or is favored to win almost every state where the turnout demographics strongly resemble those of Democrats as a whole. This shouldn’t be surprising — Clinton is winning nationally by about 14 percentage points in the popular vote. So if you’re in a state that’s well-representative of Democrats’ national demographics, you might expect her to win it by a solid margin too.
It’s true that a couple of states in the Deep South, such as Mississippi and Louisiana, rate as being not well-representative by our definition. But overall, that’s more likely to be true of places where Sanders has won. New Hampshire ranks as the 46th most representative out of 50 states (and Iowa ranks 44th — maybe those states shouldn’t hold the first two contests?). Wisconsin, which Sanders won last week, is below average.
And the sort of wishful thinking Sanders is engaged in can cut both ways. Yes, Clinton’s lead would be considerably narrower (although she’d still be winning) without delegates from the Deep South. But what if you excluded delegates from caucuses, where Sanders has gained a net of 150 delegates on Clinton? Without those delegates, Sanders couldn’t even maintain the pretense of a competitive race. Not only are most of those caucus states extremely white and therefore poorly representative of Democrats’ national demographics — many of them (such as Idaho and Nebraska) are also quite red. Furthermore, caucuses tend to disenfranchise voters by making it harder to vote. Our demographic modeling suggests that this has hurt Clinton and that Sanders wouldn’t have won by the same enormous margins if those caucus states had held primaries instead.
But overall, the math is pretty simple. Sanders is winning states that are much whiter than the Democratic electorate as a whole, Clinton is winning states that are much blacker than the Democratic electorate as a whole, and Clinton is winning most of those states that are somewhere in the middle, whether they’re in the South (like Virginia) or elsewhere (like Ohio or Nevada). That’s why she’ll probably be the Democratic nominee.
The most representative state by this measure is New Jersey. We expect its primary electorate to be about 57 percent white, 26 percent black, 11 percent Hispanic and 6 percent Asian or other, quite close to the national Democratic electorate. New Jersey won’t vote until June 7, although Clinton was well ahead when the last poll was released there in February.
After New Jersey comes Illinois, which Clinton won narrowly — and then Florida, where Clinton won going away. Then there’s New York, which votes Tuesday, and where Clinton is 15 percentage points ahead in our polling average. Virginia, another Southern state, ranks as the next most representative; Clinton won it easily. Then there’s Nevada, another Clinton state, before we go back to the South to North Carolina, also won by Clinton. The next group of four states (Maryland, Tennessee, Arkansas and Michigan) are roughly tied and include some further representation for the South, along with, finally, one state (Michigan) that Sanders won.
In other words, Clinton has won or is favored to win almost every state where the turnout demographics strongly resemble those of Democrats as a whole. This shouldn’t be surprising — Clinton is winning nationally by about 14 percentage points in the popular vote. So if you’re in a state that’s well-representative of Democrats’ national demographics, you might expect her to win it by a solid margin too.
It’s true that a couple of states in the Deep South, such as Mississippi and Louisiana, rate as being not well-representative by our definition. But overall, that’s more likely to be true of places where Sanders has won. New Hampshire ranks as the 46th most representative out of 50 states (and Iowa ranks 44th — maybe those states shouldn’t hold the first two contests?). Wisconsin, which Sanders won last week, is below average.
And the sort of wishful thinking Sanders is engaged in can cut both ways. Yes, Clinton’s lead would be considerably narrower (although she’d still be winning) without delegates from the Deep South. But what if you excluded delegates from caucuses, where Sanders has gained a net of 150 delegates on Clinton? Without those delegates, Sanders couldn’t even maintain the pretense of a competitive race. Not only are most of those caucus states extremely white and therefore poorly representative of Democrats’ national demographics — many of them (such as Idaho and Nebraska) are also quite red. Furthermore, caucuses tend to disenfranchise voters by making it harder to vote. Our demographic modeling suggests that this has hurt Clinton and that Sanders wouldn’t have won by the same enormous margins if those caucus states had held primaries instead.
But overall, the math is pretty simple. Sanders is winning states that are much whiter than the Democratic electorate as a whole, Clinton is winning states that are much blacker than the Democratic electorate as a whole, and Clinton is winning most of those states that are somewhere in the middle, whether they’re in the South (like Virginia) or elsewhere (like Ohio or Nevada). That’s why she’ll probably be the Democratic nominee.
grokit
well-worn member
Bernie Sanders, What the Hell Have You Done for Us Lately?
You don’t have to like Bernie Sanders’s ideas. I get it. He’s a Democratic Socialist, a progressive, and some folks don’t like that. However, you can't say he doesn't have any accomplishments.
Here are 28 of them, just to name a few:
BERNIE SANDERS: Former student organizer for the Congress of Racial Equality and the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee. Led the first ever civil rights sit-in in Chicago history to protest segregated housing. One of only 2 sitting US Senators to have heard MLK's "I have a Dream Speech" in person in the march on Washington, DC. Former professor of political science at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government and at Hamilton College. Former mayor of Burlington, VT. Elected by the state of Vermont 8 times to serve in the House of Representatives. The longest-serving independent in U.S. congressional history. He was dubbed the "amendment king" in the House of Representatives for passing more amendments than any other member of Congress. Ranking member on the Senate Budget Committee. Author of 2 books, and co-author of 3 others. Has recorded and released a folk music album. Self-described Democratic Socialist. Married to a woman named Jane, who is a former president of Burlington College.
~In a stunning upset in 1981, Sanders wins the mayoral race in Burlington, Vermont's largest city, by a mere 10 votes. Running as an independent, he shocks the city's political establishment by defeating a six-term, local machine mayor.
~During his tenure as mayor, he balanced the city budget, drew a minor league baseball team to Burlington, turned the formerly industrial waterfront into a mixed-use district featuring housing, parks, and public space. Burlington is now reported to be one of the most livable cities in the nation.
~In 1991, he was the first independent elected to the House in 40 years. He will be re-elected by the people of Vermont to serve eight terms.
~Votes against a measure providing President George H. W. Bush with authorization to use military force in the Gulf War. "I have a real fear that the region is not going to be more peaceful or more stable after the war," he says at the time.
~Co-founded the Congressional Progressive Caucus and chaired the group for its first 8 years.
~In 1992, Congress passes Sanders' first signed piece of legislation to create the National Program of Cancer Registries. All 50 states now run registries to help cancer researchers gain important insights.
~Voted against the Clinton-era North American Free Trade Agreement, which we now know sent millions of American jobs overseas.
~Sanders is one of only 67 votes against the discriminatory Defense of Marriage Act, which denied federal benefits to same-sex couples legally married. It took 17 years to overturn this Act.
~Standing up against the major pharmaceutical companies, Sanders becomes the first member of Congress to take seniors across the border to Canada to buy lower-cost prescription drugs. The congressman continues his bus trips to Canada with a group of breast cancer patients the following April. These women are able to purchase their medications in Canada for almost one-tenth the price charged in the States.
~Thanks to Sanders' efforts, IBM agreed to a $320 million legal settlement with some 130,000 IBM workers and retirees.
~About 10 years before the 2008 Wall Street crash spins the world economy into a massive recession, Sanders votes "no" on a bill to undo decades of financial regulations enacted after the Great Depression. The House passed the bill 362-57 over Sanders' objection.
~Sanders votes against the USA Patriot Act. "All of us want to protect the American people from terrorist attacks, but in a way that does not undermine basic freedoms," Sanders says at the time.
~Sanders votes against the Bush-Cheney war in Iraq. He warns at the time that an invasion could "result in anti-Americanism, instability and more terrorism." We now know that that war was one of the worst foreign policy decisions in our history.
~Sanders passes an amendment in the House to stop the government from obtaining library and book-buying records on Americans.
~Sanders defeats Vermont's richest man, Rich Tarrant, to be elected to the U.S. Senate. Sanders, running as an Independent, is endorsed by the Vermont Democratic Party and supported by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
~Sanders' authored energy efficiency and conservation grant program passes into law. He later secures $3.2 billion in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 for the grant program.
~Thanks to Sanders' efforts, funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program funding doubles, helping millions of low-income Americans heat their homes in winter.
~Sanders works with Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley to pass an amendment to an economic recovery bill preventing Wall Street banks that take taxpayer bailouts from replacing laid-off U.S. workers with exploited and poorly-paid foreign workers.
~Sanders passes language in the Affordable Care Act to allow states to apply for waivers to implement pilot health care systems by 2017. The legislation allows states to adopt more comprehensive systems to cover more people at lower costs.
~In 2010, President Barack Obama signs into law the Affordable Care Act with a major Sanders provision to expand federally qualified community health centers. Sanders secures $12.5 billion in funding for the program which now serves more than 25 million Americans. Another $1.5 billion from a Sanders provision went to the National Health Service Corps for scholarships and loan repayment for doctors and nurses who practice in underserved communities.
~Sanders works with Republican Congressman Ron Paul in the House to pass a measure as part of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform bill to audit the Federal Reserve, revealing how the independent agency gave $16 trillion in near zero-interest loans to big banks and businesses after the 2008 economic collapse.
~In 2012, he becomes Chairman of the Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee.
~Sanders, backed by seniors, women, veterans, labor unions and disabled Americans leads a successful effort to stop a "chained-CPI" proposal supported by Congressional Republicans and the Administration to cut Social Security and disabled veterans' benefits.
~Sanders introduces legislation to break up major Wall Street banks so large that the collapse of one could send the overall economy into a downward spiral.
~A bipartisan $16.5 billion veterans bill written by Sanders, Sen. John McCain and Rep. Jeff Miller is signed into law by President Barack Obama.
~In 2015, Sanders takes over as ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee, using the platform to fight for his economic agenda for the American middle class.
~Sanders votes against the Keystone XL pipeline which would allow multinational corporation TransCanada to transport dirty tar sands oil from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico.
~Both the NAACP and the NHLA (National Hispanic Leadership Agenda) have given Sanders 100% voting scores during his tenure in the Senate. Earns a D- from the NRA.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...ers-What-the-Hell-Have-You-Done-for-Us-Lately
You don’t have to like Bernie Sanders’s ideas. I get it. He’s a Democratic Socialist, a progressive, and some folks don’t like that. However, you can't say he doesn't have any accomplishments.
Here are 28 of them, just to name a few:
BERNIE SANDERS: Former student organizer for the Congress of Racial Equality and the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee. Led the first ever civil rights sit-in in Chicago history to protest segregated housing. One of only 2 sitting US Senators to have heard MLK's "I have a Dream Speech" in person in the march on Washington, DC. Former professor of political science at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government and at Hamilton College. Former mayor of Burlington, VT. Elected by the state of Vermont 8 times to serve in the House of Representatives. The longest-serving independent in U.S. congressional history. He was dubbed the "amendment king" in the House of Representatives for passing more amendments than any other member of Congress. Ranking member on the Senate Budget Committee. Author of 2 books, and co-author of 3 others. Has recorded and released a folk music album. Self-described Democratic Socialist. Married to a woman named Jane, who is a former president of Burlington College.
~In a stunning upset in 1981, Sanders wins the mayoral race in Burlington, Vermont's largest city, by a mere 10 votes. Running as an independent, he shocks the city's political establishment by defeating a six-term, local machine mayor.
~During his tenure as mayor, he balanced the city budget, drew a minor league baseball team to Burlington, turned the formerly industrial waterfront into a mixed-use district featuring housing, parks, and public space. Burlington is now reported to be one of the most livable cities in the nation.
~In 1991, he was the first independent elected to the House in 40 years. He will be re-elected by the people of Vermont to serve eight terms.
~Votes against a measure providing President George H. W. Bush with authorization to use military force in the Gulf War. "I have a real fear that the region is not going to be more peaceful or more stable after the war," he says at the time.
~Co-founded the Congressional Progressive Caucus and chaired the group for its first 8 years.
~In 1992, Congress passes Sanders' first signed piece of legislation to create the National Program of Cancer Registries. All 50 states now run registries to help cancer researchers gain important insights.
~Voted against the Clinton-era North American Free Trade Agreement, which we now know sent millions of American jobs overseas.
~Sanders is one of only 67 votes against the discriminatory Defense of Marriage Act, which denied federal benefits to same-sex couples legally married. It took 17 years to overturn this Act.
~Standing up against the major pharmaceutical companies, Sanders becomes the first member of Congress to take seniors across the border to Canada to buy lower-cost prescription drugs. The congressman continues his bus trips to Canada with a group of breast cancer patients the following April. These women are able to purchase their medications in Canada for almost one-tenth the price charged in the States.
~Thanks to Sanders' efforts, IBM agreed to a $320 million legal settlement with some 130,000 IBM workers and retirees.
~About 10 years before the 2008 Wall Street crash spins the world economy into a massive recession, Sanders votes "no" on a bill to undo decades of financial regulations enacted after the Great Depression. The House passed the bill 362-57 over Sanders' objection.
~Sanders votes against the USA Patriot Act. "All of us want to protect the American people from terrorist attacks, but in a way that does not undermine basic freedoms," Sanders says at the time.
~Sanders votes against the Bush-Cheney war in Iraq. He warns at the time that an invasion could "result in anti-Americanism, instability and more terrorism." We now know that that war was one of the worst foreign policy decisions in our history.
~Sanders passes an amendment in the House to stop the government from obtaining library and book-buying records on Americans.
~Sanders defeats Vermont's richest man, Rich Tarrant, to be elected to the U.S. Senate. Sanders, running as an Independent, is endorsed by the Vermont Democratic Party and supported by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
~Sanders' authored energy efficiency and conservation grant program passes into law. He later secures $3.2 billion in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 for the grant program.
~Thanks to Sanders' efforts, funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program funding doubles, helping millions of low-income Americans heat their homes in winter.
~Sanders works with Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley to pass an amendment to an economic recovery bill preventing Wall Street banks that take taxpayer bailouts from replacing laid-off U.S. workers with exploited and poorly-paid foreign workers.
~Sanders passes language in the Affordable Care Act to allow states to apply for waivers to implement pilot health care systems by 2017. The legislation allows states to adopt more comprehensive systems to cover more people at lower costs.
~In 2010, President Barack Obama signs into law the Affordable Care Act with a major Sanders provision to expand federally qualified community health centers. Sanders secures $12.5 billion in funding for the program which now serves more than 25 million Americans. Another $1.5 billion from a Sanders provision went to the National Health Service Corps for scholarships and loan repayment for doctors and nurses who practice in underserved communities.
~Sanders works with Republican Congressman Ron Paul in the House to pass a measure as part of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform bill to audit the Federal Reserve, revealing how the independent agency gave $16 trillion in near zero-interest loans to big banks and businesses after the 2008 economic collapse.
~In 2012, he becomes Chairman of the Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee.
~Sanders, backed by seniors, women, veterans, labor unions and disabled Americans leads a successful effort to stop a "chained-CPI" proposal supported by Congressional Republicans and the Administration to cut Social Security and disabled veterans' benefits.
~Sanders introduces legislation to break up major Wall Street banks so large that the collapse of one could send the overall economy into a downward spiral.
~A bipartisan $16.5 billion veterans bill written by Sanders, Sen. John McCain and Rep. Jeff Miller is signed into law by President Barack Obama.
~In 2015, Sanders takes over as ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee, using the platform to fight for his economic agenda for the American middle class.
~Sanders votes against the Keystone XL pipeline which would allow multinational corporation TransCanada to transport dirty tar sands oil from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico.
~Both the NAACP and the NHLA (National Hispanic Leadership Agenda) have given Sanders 100% voting scores during his tenure in the Senate. Earns a D- from the NRA.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...ers-What-the-Hell-Have-You-Done-for-Us-Lately
CarolKing
Singer of songs and a vapor connoisseur
I think Saturday Night Live can have some influence on the presidential race. Last night they showed favoritism towards Hillary Clinton. I will be curious if they will continue to do that or next week have skits showing favoritism towards Bernie. It will be interesting to see.
CuckFumbustion
Lo and Behold! The transformative power of Vapor.
Whoever shows up for a skit and does a rehearsal beforehand is in.
Plus 3 of the 5 candidates are going for NY clout. Clinton loves saying how much of a New Yorker she is and is doing skits on the tv circuit.Sanders and Clinton could both could show up in a skit as 'normal folks' and ask the SNL candidate questions. It writes itself. The actor who plays Trump would crash the skit and be the foil for the next round of jokes.
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howie105
Well-Known Member
TV presentations and personalities have influence on some folks, like Rachel Meadows, O’Reilly and many of the other slick and pretty images packaged for a particular audience. All we can do is hope that enough folks are smart enough to realize what is real and what is not. Sadly however to paraphrase some guys, we know that the hypnotized believe the lies.
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