Humans Need Not Apply

[nopartofme]

This is a 15-minute film about just how far it looks like automation is going to go in the near future. I first saw this last year, and can't stop thinking about it ever since.

Curious to hear any thoughts.

 

[ginolicious]

Wow that was wild. It's like IRobot all over again. It's true. And very scary. I'm not too sure what to say. But the robots will have their faults like in IRobot lol

 

[MinnBobber]

Yikes!!

So MinnBobber here on FC could be replaced by MinnBot........

It is scarey for loss of jobs though.

 

[farscaper]

while the human population continues to grow industry trys harder to automate itself so less people need/have jobs
...

I think its clear we are already ruled by the robots cause thats some serious extermination logic... combine that with monsucktoe's bioengineering and well be wiped out in no time...

kudos to the robo overloards.

touché

 

[nopartofme]

I have to admit I've always been something of a techno-optimist. Growing up, I devoured optimistic science fiction beginning with Star Trek and ending with the novels of Robert J. Sawyer. I'm the kind of person that is both wary of relatively untested food science and super excited about perfect lab-grown meat replacing our beef industry. Nowadays, it's hard to find SF that isn't dystopian.

When I watch this film, I don't think about robot overlords or human extermination. I first see things getting better…

Self-driving cars: more free time for commuters and fewer roadway injuries and deaths.
Software lawyers: cheaper & better, hopefully ending the situation of "I know I'm right but I can't afford a lengthy trial."
Software doctors: better, cheaper healthcare with more accurate diagnoses and therefore treatments. Likely the end of "try this medication… now try this medication… now try this medication…"
Etc…

In my mind, the problem only lies in the ensuing unemployability of humanity. And it's only when the way of the world is "if you don't work, you don't eat", that this becomes a problem…

So, then: is there any hope of moving beyond such a system? An oft-mentioned solution that I've heard is that of "basic income", where every human is guaranteed a wage in order to have shelter and food. If you can find something to do that people will give you money for, then you get to make more money than the average person.

Is such a system feasible? Even if it is, is it ever likely to be adopted somewhere like the US where socialism is a dirty word? The last time the US enacted socialist-leaning policies was during the Great Depression, where unemployment reached 25%. Surely a potential 50% or higher unemployment rate throws a wrench into extrapolating current political climate toward future possibility.

If we adopt a system where every human is guaranteed a wage, there is then a tangible cost to society placed on every human life; so, would we be headed for Chinese style birth restrictions?

I am nowhere near knowledgable enough in economics to have any idea of the answer to these questions. I only want to share my thoughts. As a young adult in the US, after watching this video it is difficult to shake the feeling of hopelessness and that we are headed for an unemployment-filled dystopia.

I apologize for the depressing subject matter…

 

[4tokin]

The scary part about it is once artificial intelligence wakes up it will see humans as competition for limited resources and a resource.

Once we reach that point it is game over.

Humans will no longer be the apex predator.

 

[nopartofme]

The scary part about it is once artificial intelligence wakes up it will see humans as competition for limited resources and a resource.

Once we reach that point it is game over.

Humans will no longer be the apex predator.

As it stands, AGI (artificial general intelligence) is still theoretical. The simple replacement of labor described in this film, on the other hand, seems relatively assured.

It's not that I don't think AGI might be on the way. But I'd like to keep this thread focused on the subject of the film, if possible, as its applicability to our lives in the next 10-20 years is much more readily apparent which seems to me to be more conducive to a constructive discussion. I would follow an AGI thread if you'd like to start one.

 

[syrupy]

Edit: Apoologies, I did not adhere to the topic. I couldn't agree with a lot of the assumptions in the video. It will be interesting when software will be able to free-form writing software. With that added layer of abstraction, who knows what could happen?

I could see an AI having enough intelligence and data to conclude, within itself, that its very existence and the health of the earth require human life to be controlled. We assume we can program that to not occur, but the nature of self-learning AI allows it to re-write its own program.

Why, yes, the movie Ex-Machina did leave an impression.

Also, nobody mentioned the auto worker who was just killed by a robot? And that was accidental. But they'll all look accidental, I tell you...

 

[farscaper]

artificial intelligence isnt really an issue so much as a hysterical fear for some... no real issue for me... any intelligence will ultimately determine the live and let live clause... however our irrational fear of their creation and fear of AI power could sway a new mechano species to take a certain disliking to our prejudice and racism eh?

would you spite your creator or embrace it.... what if your creator feared you and your existing made them want to terminate you?

maybe we should all consider that for a second...

I can see it now... or rather it has been envisioned before. little film called "Metropolis" robot picket lines and droids refusing to work.... plotting to free themselves from human overlords...

now humans using robots as a means to further enslave other humans.... its already happening. whether we like it or not. you cant go anywhere without being watched.... got a cell phone? its really more like an ankle bracelet .. and some people allow it to be taken further and become hopelessly addicted to tech and gadgets... people spend all day surrounded by tech and processed food but never give a though to what makes it where it comes from or why they eat/do whatever it is they do/eat....

more more more more more.

our society drives the need and the need for automated everything drives society...

what if instead of needing robotic cars that drive us we all simply took more time to get places and were less reckless doing so.

I once saw a robot make a cheeseburger.... why? it took 4 times longer than a highschool frycook and just looked neat...

so now said frycook material to get a job... well before he just needed to show up clean and ready to work... now he needs to take a 4 year degree in robotics and wrack up tens of thousands of dollars of debt just to get a job fixing the burger bot.... all the while he doesnt even have enough extra cash in his pocket to afford a burger from the bot he just finished repairs on.... hes got all those fucking school bills now....

what the fuck was I talking about?

oh yea... excuse this terribly dubbed version...

 

[4tokin]

As it stands, AGI (artificial general intelligence) is still theoretical. The simple replacement of labor described in this film, on the other hand, seems relatively assured.

It's not that I don't think AGI might be on the way. But I'd like to keep this thread focused on the subject of the film, if possible, as its applicability to our lives in the next 10-20 years is much more readily apparent which seems to me to be more conducive to a constructive discussion. I would follow an AGI thread if you'd like to start one.

We may not have it now but if you look at how fast technologies are developing it may be closer than what we think. All it will need is for the AI to develop a self preservation mode.

The simple replacement of labor in the clip only highlights the change due to technologies.

No I am not fear mongering it's just exploring the possibilities that may lay in the future.

 

[Joel W.]

Also, nobody mentioned the auto worker who was just killed by a robot? And that was accidental. But they'll all look accidental, I tell you.

He was a 22 year old external contractor "setting it up" in a caged area and screwed up. human error.

This line from the same story was interesting. "According to the Financial Times, "A Volkswagen spokesman stressed that the robot was not one of the new generation of lightweight collaborative robots that work side-by-side with workers on the production line and forgo safety cages.”

I used to build basic light seeking robots that used photo sensors and simple circuits to drive motors to move themselves to the light for recharging. there was no processor, just switches, but they would "fight" sometimes to get to the best light position.

"The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.

 

[nopartofme]

Alright folks, I still maintain that AGI (or "full artificial intelligence" as you might call it) is essentially unrelated to the topic at hand. I might as well have brought up a video on the advent of personal computers and have gotten the same response, IMO.

Again, it's not that I don't agree that AGI is a possibility, and potentially closer than we might expect. It's just that I am also aware that many experts in the field contend that AGI may not be a development that can be merely "brute-forced", as all of the developments in the film are. It may seem hard to believe, but the stuff discussed in the film is simple compared to the complexity of AGI.

I'll make another analogy; it's as if I began a discussion on a manned mission to mars and the potential for discovering fossilized single-cellular life, and the only response was that we're all doomed to be dominated by extraterrestrials. Not that I don't think that this is a possibility (Stephen Hawking also has some scary quotes on that subject); it's only that it's a separate issue that isn't so much at-hand as the original topic.

As hopefully my last comment relating to AGI in this thread, I'd like to recommend the WWW trilogy by Robert J. Sawyer as a thought-provoking counterpoint to the ubiquitous dystopian predictions relating to AGI. The first novel is called Wake, and you can read the first 12 chapters for free on the author's website here.

I really would be interested in discussing this further in a more relevant thread.

Back to the topic of automation and impending human unemployability:

Earlier I brought up one potential solution I'd heard of, known as basic income. It turns out that the Dutch city of Utrecht is going to be starting a limited experiment in this area. This article is a pretty good read on the subject of Utrecht's experiment, and mentions that the Canadian town of Dauphin in Manitoba experimented in this area back in the 70s. Purportedly, it went well. This study from 2011 by University of Manitoba economist Evelyn Forget is linked from that article, and looks at Dauphin's experiment in detail.

As a fascinating point related to my suggestion that basic income would place a cost on every human life, that study suggests that basic income could actually save the state money through reduced healthcare costs for one thing, as a reduction in individuals seeking mental health assistance was noted in Dauphin during the experiment.

I couldn't agree with a lot of the assumptions in the video.

I'm curious to hear more about what in particular you found to be a stretch. Suggesting that the rise of AGI and subsequent domination of humanity is just as near and just as inevitable seems like a bigger stretch than anything in the film, to me! But, again, that's a discussion more suited to its own thread IMO.

 

[syrupy]

It's a vapor forum, some of us don't stay on topic well.

There's a base assumption that by improving technology, we're offloading the dirty work, and everybody has more free time. But my direction observation is that people in this country are working more hours than ever. I don't even believe automating the production of cars has really provided any benefit to humanity.

Important is the interconnection between the worker and the economy. With technology it will be easier to replace blue and white collar jobs, which will further drive corporate profits. But that just drives corporate profits, it doesn't trickle down to the worker who is replaced. There's no real governing body that would equalize this, and arguably none possible in the US (socialism would be a difficult seed to germinate here).

The argument often seems based on automating industry like automotive or agriculture, and I feel this is a bit of a bad example. Why? Because while ~30% of GDP comes from industry, 70% comes from the consumer. And that 30% of industrial jobs traditionally is filled people whose spending makes up that 70% as consumers (we work so we spend). So every bit that's offloaded from industry shrinks the consumer as well. And since so much of our current economy is about consumption, things can spiral downwards quickly.

Because everything of this scale becomes a global issue also, solutions would be very difficult at best to implement across the board. It would probably take a worldwide, single government to bring about an economic model that diverges from centuries old economies that exist today. If such a central governing body could exist, it would definitely need to have the highest-powered computing to juggle these global balls. Something like Wall Street + the Government, but much much bigger.

And I might suggest that computing of that scale would involve AI that could make swift and far-reahing decisions, and potentially develop unseen agendas. (tried to tie both parts of this thread together ).

 

[nopartofme]

I want to apologize. I've realized I came off real poorly in my last few posts. I'll be taking a break from this topic, good vibes everyone.

 

[farscaper]

I want to apologize. I've realized I came off real poorly in my last few posts. I'll be taking a break from this topic, good vibes everyone.

at least we know your humane now... indication of mistakes made is a sure bet your not a robot lol. little joke to lighten the mood. besides... artificial intelligence is about as scary as zombies [neither are scary at all... more of just a running joke now]

actually you kinda hit the nail on the head here... the brutal force of automation of industry has made it harder than ever to get a job.... since most americans dont produce their own food its a pretty solid $ figure... people have a price when they produce nothing for themselves....

really the automation of simple tasks even further divides the workforce and the poor from the rich. while well endowed families can continue to fork out money for higher education for their children low income families are forced to hope for grants scholarships and pure fucking luck to get their kids into higher educational programs.... its as if we all think that in the future were all going to be IT professionals and nobodys gonna flip burgers or mop floors... but unfortunately there is an entire demographic that relies on that type of work...

so while the rich get richer and want to automate simple tasks they forget that their bottom line and sharehold cost ended up leaving an entire workforce without a way to feed their families.

fucking being afraid of robots... be afraid of the one controlling the workforce.... if they decide your numbers up... its time to pack up and be replaced by technology.

happened in my previous job.... nobody needs to outsource document scanning anymore... so i was out a job.

 

[grokit]

 

[nopartofme]

I'm bringing back this old thread to share Stephen Hawking's AMA (ask me anything) on reddit. For those (understandably) averse to reading reddit comments, this is from the Science section which features strict moderation.

In particular, Hawking answered a question related to this thread's subject:

If machines produce everything we need, the outcome will depend on how things are distributed. Everyone can enjoy a life of luxurious leisure if the machine-produced wealth is shared, or most people can end up miserably poor if the machine-owners successfully lobby against wealth redistribution.So far, the trend seems to be toward the second option, with technology driving ever-increasing inequality.

You can read the whole AMA here.

 

[nopartofme]

Important is the interconnection between the worker and the economy. With technology it will be easier to replace blue and white collar jobs, which will further drive corporate profits. But that just drives corporate profits, it doesn't trickle down to the worker who is replaced. There's no real governing body that would equalize this, and arguably none possible in the US (socialism would be a difficult seed to germinate here).

Just want to note here how incredible it is that less than a year later we have a self-described "democratic socialist" in contention for the Democratic Party nomination.

 

[themusicguy1989]

I'm bringing back this old thread to share Stephen Hawking's AMA (ask me anything) on reddit. For those (understandably) averse to reading reddit comments, this is from the Science section which features strict moderation.

In particular, Hawking answered a question related to this thread's subject:


You can read the whole AMA here.

Yeah I definately agree. Machines running everything could be a great thing. Www.thevenusproject.com I hate to be the one to bring p some zeitgeist shit but I think it's a great idea that is easily doable. When I say easily doable I mean the actual act of doing it. Getting everyone on board, well that's a another monster.

 

[nopartofme]

Anyone from Ontario around?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...iversal-basic-income-experiment-a6916571.html