Egypt could fall..........

[lwien]

.....and if it does and it becomes a radical Muslim state, and if this has a domino affect, considering that the catalyst for this seems to be what happened in Tunisia, this could potentially have very dire consequences for Israel and US interests.

We really need to learn that we can't support a government who doesn't support their people. What is happening there was bound to happen. Shouldn't really come as a surprise. We've always had the policy of supporting those governments who support us, regardless of how ruthless or oppressive a specific dictatorship or theocracy may be. We're totally against all of the human rights issues that occur in Iran and Afghanistan and what occurred in Iraq, but yet, we turn a total blind eye to all of the human rights and oppressive issues that are happening in Saudi Arabia which is just as ruthless and inhumane as what happens in Iran or Afghanistan.

 

[Pappy]

I agree. Mubarak has been flying under the radar since Sadat's assassination because he a westernized dictator cut from the same cloth as the Shah of Iran. Not surprising Egypt would erupt in protest sooner or later.

 

[fidget]

Completely agree with both of you.

 

[Plotinus]

There are gradations of "radical." The people on the streets right now represent the broadest possible coalition - basically anyone who isn't in or connected to the Mubarak regime is working together.

The Muslim Brotherhood are a big part of that, and it's true that they aren't great when it comes to Israel. But they have renounced violence and are even considered "Western agents" by groups like al-Qaeda because they dare to occasionally have rational conversations with non-Muslims.

If Mohamed ElBaradei is put in charge of a new coalition, I am hopeful, even for Israel. We'll just have to wait and see.

For those who are interested, al-Jazeera is live streaming here: http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/ Mubarak is speaking at the moment.

 

[Beezleb]

I sense a Sith at work. Send in the Jedi.

 

[bcleez]

I actually have read that the USA has planned and supported this for about 3 years.

 

[lwien]

I actually have read that the USA has planned and supported this for about 3 years.

Why, especially considering that Egypt is one of our strongest allies in the region? Considering the power vacuum that would be created, it seems unfathomable why the US would plan something like this.

This situation puts us in the proverbial rock and hard spot situation. If we support the government and they lose, we lose good will with the populace. If we support the protesters and they lose, we lose good will with the government. The big question is, who is going to fill the power vacuum? Why would we want to encourage or cause this situation to happen in the first place?

 

[lwien]

Obama is going to talk on this in about 5 min.....

No doubt that it will be geared more towards the Egyptian populace and government rather than us. Should be interesting how he words this.

 

[hereatlast]

This may have been what one of the previous posters was referring to:

"U.S. Backed Egyptian Rebel Leader
Despite President Obamas reticence to speak ill against President Hosni Mubarak, theres some evidence that the U.S. is supportive of Egypts anti-regime protesters. The American embassy in Cairo helped a young Egyptian insurgent to attend a U.S.-sponsored conference for activists in New York City three years ago, according to newly unveiled WikiLeaks cables. Diplomats kept his identity anonymous from Egyptian police, and upon his return in December 2008 he notified the U.S. authorities that opposition groups were forming to overthrow Mubarak by 2011. The activist has since been arrested by Egyptian authorities, but documents released by WikiLeaks show that the U.S. has pushed Egypt to release others like him from detention."


http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheat-...egypt-rebel-leader/revealed/?cid=cs:headline1

 

[Beezleb]

The US is just playing the sides. Same old same old.

 

[Gunky]

Suppose Obama called for the overthrow of Mubarak. If he is overthrown ok, but what if he isn't? Might make for a rather strained atmosphere the next time they sip tea together, eh? The US has propped up this fellow for 30 years, long before the present administration. We have quietly worked to free political prisoners but with little avail. Egyptians are probably annoyed at us helping this dictator stay in power. So Obama puts out a carefully calibrated speech talking about human rights, long held grievances, path to resolution, etc. No other American politician could have given much of a different speech. Foreign policy errors are coming home to roost.

 

[tdavie]

I'm worried about what will happen in the Red Sea (it's currently largely and mostly ineffectively patrolled by the Egyptian Navy), and in Lebanon (with the influence of Hezbollah, Syria and Iran). I think it would be a complete and utter disaster if a) Egypt dissolves and morphs into a Muslim theocracy, b) Lebanon goes firmly Muslim. This would effectively give Iran access to the Mediterranean. I really do not think this can be allowed (but who is going to stop it).

It's messed up. It's scary. And it is endlessly fascinating.

Betcha the Saudi Sheiks are staining their britches at the moment.

Tom

 

[lwien]

Yup. A classic example of a cluster-fuck.

 

[Blackthoven]

, we need to introduce these people to psychedelics !

 

[bcleez]

We are only supporting the current regime in public because the Saudi's would flip out if we didn't.

 

[momatik]

It's very doubtful that a radical government will take the place of Mubarak's regime in Egypt. They desperately want democracy, which is very similar to mainstream interpretations of Shariah. The organization on the ground has been phenomenal. The average Egyptian is a lot more educated than one may think. Same with the Tunisians.

Obama is caught in a tough situation. If the administration decides to vocally support the people, he will be criticized for the longstanding support prior to. At the same time, he wants to be on the side that wins, and the people are going to win. It took Ben Ali 27 days to begin a full on response to the protest. It took Mubarak just 4 days to send the army against his own people.

It would be wise for Obama to support the Egyptian people though.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/04/obama-speech-in-cairo-vid_n_211215.html

Just 2 years ago when he was there and inspired the Muslim world with a beautiful speech.

Since then, Muslims became disillusioned after his stance on Afghanistan, Guantanamo Bay, and just in general the fact that relations are not improving at all. Just a few days ago, a man was caught with explosives outside of a Dearborn mosque. The damage that has been done already in Afghanistan will resonate for decades. Things aren't getting better just yet.

If the administration were to support the Egyptians in this extreme time of need, it would be a HUGE step towards repairing relations between the West and Muslims across the world.

As a Muslim, I'm extremely excited and optimistic about the future. We're living in amazing times.

 

[Gunky]

Momatik, I tend to agree with you. I suspect the Obama administration's role in this is fraught with more difficulty than people imagine. Successive American administrations have placed a lot of dangerous armaments at the disposal of the Egyptian government. How do we retrieve those or insure that they don't end up being fired at our troops somewhere? How do we help manage the responsible custody of extremely lethal hardware under conditions where the central government is dissolving? Clearly the Obama administration is looking for some orderly path toward a new authority. Our dumb-ass tame dictator suppressed all moderate opposition so the only well-organized parties outside of the government are fairly radical Islamists whose ascent to the reins of power (and control of F-16's! Cheese, those are no joke) would present serious problems.

 

[lwien]

If the administration were to support the Egyptians in this extreme time of need, it would be a HUGE step towards repairing relations between the West and Muslims across the world.

I was thinking the exact same thing a few nights ago when I was watching what was happening. This is a real opportunity for us to turn things around in a very big way.............but Obama's balls are going to have to be as big as his ears for this to happen, unless the Army turns against it's own people, and THAT is a big question mark.

You're right momatik. We ARE living in very amazing times.

 

[momatik]

Good point Gunky. My fear is that we will continue to paint all these 'radical' organizations with the same brush.

We have to be willing to trust the people to make the right decision. Although, it is my understanding that the the Egyptians generally do want to help the Palestinian cause. That's not something that we want. We'll see what happens I guess.

We, as Americans, should not only be concerned of the future use of these F-16s, but also how they are being used currently.

Those fighter jets being used to scare the Egyptian people in the streets? American made.

Those tanks and helicopters armed with various RPGs and missiles? Not sure if they are American made (probably), but certainly 100% American funded.

This is the reality of the situation.

It's also important that we understand the Egyptian people are not dumb. They are angry with Americans for their continuing support of Mubarak.

Robert Fisk reported:

Anti-American sentiment was growing after Mr Obama's continued if tepid support for the Mubarak regime. "No, Obama, not Mubarak," posters read. And Mr Mubarak's face appeared with a Star of David superimposed over his face. Many of the crowd produced stun-gun cartridge cases fired last week with "Made in the USA" stamped on the bottom. And I noticed the lead tank's hull bore markings beginning "MFR" at this point a soldier with a rifle and bayonet fixed was ordered to arrest me so I ran into the crowd and he retreated but could "MFR" stand for the US Mobile Force Reserve, which keeps its tanks in Egypt? Was this tank column on loan from the Americans? You don't need to work out what the Egyptians make of all this.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/how-much-longer-can-mubarak-cling-on-2198987.html

 

[Gunky]

It's a challenging situation for Obama and Clinton. I think they have handled it pretty well so far. Obama's brief speech the other night was interesting in that while it didn't outright demand Mubarak step down, it placed the rights of the Egyptian people - and he enumerated several - on a higher plane than any alliance with Mubarak. His exact way of putting it is significant: Obama is a lawyer and constitutional scholar. The speech was clever on a number of levels and will probably go down in history as a model of how to thread a tiny needle... I am optimistic about the chances the Egyptian people will get it together and move toward secular democracy.

 

[StickyShisha2]

this screen capture from Fox makes me think they want to move Egypt into Iraq.

 

[aesthyrian]

wow..... I mean I knew Faux News was for the simple minded and uniformed... but god damn.

 

[lwien]

And yet Fox News is the most watched cable news program there is which begs the question, are the majority of us a bunch of dummies?

Which is one of the reasons that I watch the Daily Show, 'cause Stewart really takes them to task.

 

[Pappy]

Which is one of the reasons that I watch the Daily Show, 'cause Stewart really takes them to task.

And he's more accurate!

 

[aesthyrian]

And yet Fox News is the most watched cable news program there is which begs the question, are the majority of us a bunch of dummies?

Which is one of the reasons that I watch the Daily Show, 'cause Stewart really takes them to task.

Yeah, you also have to consider that Fox is in more households than MSNBC and probably even CNN. Fox is on comcast's most basic cable package, but to get MSNBC you need to upgrade to the next package. Also you can get Fox in almost ANY hotel, whereas on the other hand many hotels actually block MSNBC. Also many businesses such as bars, auto shops, hotels, and anywhere else that has a lobby or waiting area plays Fox news all day everyday. I see this all the time. You can also watch Fox all over the world, which is scary because I really hope people across the world don't think Fox is a "fair & balanced" representation of what's happening in America.

That's easy ratings IMO. Fox Murdoch knows what he's doing. And lets not even get started on how uneven the balance is when it comes to political talk radio.

I really enjoy watching independent journalism like Free Speech TV and RT News, especially Thom Hartman's new program "The Big Picture". Also http://mediamatters.org/ does a great job of reporting and correcting the everyday lies that Fox spews. They also show the images that our corporate media won't, which is specially important in regards to the Egypt crisis.

Sorry I got a bit off topic..