COVID-19 News

[florduh]

How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond

June 2021. The world has been in pandemic mode for a year and a half. The virus continues to spread at a slow burn; intermittent lockdowns are the new normal. An approved vaccine offers six months of protection, but international deal-making has slowed its distribution. An estimated 250 million people have been infected worldwide, and 1.75 million are dead.

Scenarios such as this one imagine how the COVID-19 pandemic might play out1. Around the world, epidemiologists are constructing short- and long-term projections as a way to prepare for, and potentially mitigate, the spread and impact of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Although their forecasts and timelines vary, modellers agree on two things: COVID-19 is here to stay, and the future depends on a lot of unknowns, including whether people develop lasting immunity to the virus, whether seasonality affects its spread, and — perhaps most importantly — the choices made by governments and individuals. “A lot of places are unlocking, and a lot of places aren’t. We don’t really yet know what’s going to happen,” says Rosalind Eggo, an infectious-disease modeller at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).

 

[Tranquility]

I'm just pointing out that Trump supported State lockdowns at first.

If we go to the news reports at the time, he was against even the two week flatten the curve shutdown until convinced and then supported it. He was always against continuing the shut down after the hospital emergency lack of vent fear died down.

As the Trump loving CNN wrote in late March:
Trump predicts 'this is going to be bad' but vows to reopen America
President Donald Trump appears to have made his choice in the awful dilemma posed by the coronavirus pandemic -- whether to destroy the nation's economic foundation in order to save lives.
In his zeal to fire up American prosperity after helping to trigger an unprecedented self-inflicted economic meltdown, Trump is already losing patience -- weeks before the virus may peak.
"Our country was not built to be shut down," the President warned on Monday. "We are going to be opening up our country for business because our country was meant to be open."
"We are going to get it all going again very soon," he said, without setting a timeline -- though he previously called for rethinking the White House's guidance on social distancing next week.

Then what did the papers say? I read a number of legally-correct articles showing how, exactly, Trump did not have the power to "force" states to open. All true. CNN article again:
The President's upbeat prediction of a return to full speed ahead directly contradicted the actions of state governors nationwide -- who are imposing stay-at-home orders, closing businesses and ordering schools out for summer in March.

Any support Trump had for lockdowns was for the two-week flatten the curve ones. Even then, there seems a lot out there indicating it took a lot of convincing to even get him there for those.

 

[macbill]

From a CNN report, Dr. Fauci smiles through disclosing death threats against him and his family: "I wouldn’t have imagined in my wildest dreams that people, who object to things that are pure public health principles, are so set against it .... that they actually threaten you.”

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1291062712890515463

 

[Tranquility]

From a CNN report, Dr. Fauci smiles through disclosing death threats against him and his family: "I wouldn’t have imagined in my wildest dreams that people, who object to things that are pure public health principles, are so set against it .... that they actually threaten you.”

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1291062712890515463

The sad thing is, with so many people's lives being ruined, there are almost assuredly going to be some attempts on a lot of politicians/experts related to this as time moves along. Fauci is not the only one getting threats. We've had three county health bosses in CA leave office for the same reasons.

Again, the anger and lack of hope for the future has not even really hit yet as the pain is still muffled with the money fountain from the Fed. It is going to get worse and it might not get better.

 

[florduh]

If we go to the news reports at the time, he was against even the two week flatten the curve shutdown until convinced and then supported it.

He supported at least a month and a half of shutdowns across the economy. He literally said I shut down "the economy", days ago. So he doesn’t regret that decision.


Trump says peak coronavirus deaths in 2 weeks, extends shutdown

President Trump is extending his administration's "15 days to slow the spread" shutdown guidelines for an additional month in the face of mounting coronavirus infections and deaths and pressure from public health officials and governors.

Driving the news: With the original 15-day period that was announced March 16 about to end, officials around the country had been bracing for a premature call to return to normalcy from a president who's been venting lately that the prescription for containing the virus could be worse than the impacts of the virus itself.

• "We had an aspiration" of Easter, Trump said, but when he heard the numbers of potential deaths, he realized he couldn't push a reopening of the economy as soon as he previously had foreshadowed.
• Trump explained his turnaround by saying his government's modeling shows the peak death rate will likely come in two weeks. He said that 2.2 million people could die if the government did nothing and the public didn't do the social distancing. "Nothing would be worse than declaring victory before the victory is won," he said.
• The federal guidelines include directives for older people to stay home and for all Americans to avoid social gatherings of more than 10 people and to avoid bars, restaurants, shopping trips and nursing homes.

Any support Trump had for lockdowns was for the two-week flatten the curve ones. Even then, there seems a lot out there indicating it took a lot of convincing to even get him there for those.

This is false. I don't blame you for being confused though. Unlike New Zealand, this government puts out contradictory messages constantly.

 

[Tranquility]

We simply won't agree even though the evidence is clearly out there about which party wanted to close down more and which party wanted to stay open more. The difference is so stark that many on the right think the shutdown is, basically, a left wing plot. That's probably not a good go-to position if you were the ones who wanted to shut things down in the first place. But, leaving that aside, how about now?

Who wants to open harder?

 

[florduh]

We simply won't agree even though the evidence is clearly out there about which party wanted to close down more and which party wanted to stay open more.

That's a different argument. You're under the impression Trump either never supported lockdowns, or only supported 2 weeks worth. Both of those are false. The fact you were confused about this just tells me Federal messaging has been a mess. Though that was already obvious.

Yes, public health officials and Democrats were more in favor of shut downs than Republicans. But it's not like Trump said, "States should NOT be shutting down". He supported at least 6 weeks of shutdowns in the economy. He's proud of it, telling Axios he saved "millions of lives", to this day.

I just want the "lockdowns bad" portion of the media to remember Dear Leader was for them, before he was against them. But that muddles the whole "Democrats shut down the economy to hurt Trump" narrative a bit.

 

[EmDeemo]

Besides, before this argument is over, the rest of the world will likely be in lockdown number 2 (lockdown 1 was piss, lockdown 2 will be shit).

The fact anyone on the American right can think this GLOBAL situation is due in any way to the Democrats shows how fucking short sighted people are in realising the rest of the world has something to offer.

What in the name of all holy fuck...

 

[ClearBlueLou]

You can’t “save the economy” unless you do it by saving THE PEOPLE who do all the work the economy depends on.

Unless, that is, you want to let them die in whatever numbers and replace them with forced-labor by asylum-seekers currently rotting in cages. Should have real appeal for the wrong-wing ideologues: after all, they’re ALL disposable: only the money they make for their employers is ‘essential’ - and does it really matter who or how many you discard when your only focus is on the bottom line?

 

[florduh]

The fact anyone on the American right can think this GLOBAL situation is due in any way to the Democrats shows how fucking short sighted people are in realising the rest of the world has something to offer.

The funniest part about the "Democrats are behind COVID" conspiracies is that this sort of crisis should've been a GIFT to the sitting US President in an election year. Most world leaders have seen a massive increase in their approval ratings. Bush saw a big bump in approvals after 9/11 (well, pre-Iraq). Because he at least appeared to have a plan, and showed some compassion. He also never said "it is what it is" when thousands of Americans died on his watch.

You can’t “save the economy” unless you do it by saving THE PEOPLE who do all the work the economy depends on.

I agree. The whole "shutdowns destroyed the economy" thing is a distraction. People not wanting to catch a disease that kills thousands per week, and maims many others is destroying the economy.

 

[Tranquility]

You can’t “save the economy” unless you do it by saving THE PEOPLE who do all the work the economy depends on.

Unless, that is, you want to let them die in whatever numbers and replace them with forced-labor by asylum-seekers currently rotting in cages. Should have real appeal for the wrong-wing ideologues: after all, they’re ALL disposable: only the money they make for their employers is ‘essential’ - and does it really matter who or how many you discard when your only focus is on the bottom line?

Let me know how THE PEOPLE react when food grows short because of the lack of production. Right now, shortages are more supply chain disruptions where there is food, but shifting markets and lack of funds cause problems. Soon, there will be competition for the food that was not grown or created during the lock downs.

The economy is not just money in the pockets of rich fat cats, even though they seem to make all the decisions. It is a real thing of production and making and creating new things for people to consume. With less made, there is less to consume--even if you really, really, want or need it.

Coronavirus: Need for food banks, gardens rising as pandemic halts supply

COVID-19 pandemic threatens global food security, researchers say

This local news tells of their success while others failed:
COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Food Supply

Here's an Italian-led hope to stem the hunger to come:
Coronavirus – Africa: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) – led global COVID-19 Food Coalition gains momentum

Even Wikipedia sees the issue:
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the food industry

How bad?
12,000 people per day could die from Covid-19 linked hunger by end of year, potentially more than the disease, warns Oxfam

The hunger virus: how COVID-19 is fuelling hunger in a hungry world

 

[florduh]

Right now, shortages are more supply chain disruptions where there is food, but shifting markets and lack of funds cause problems.

This is supported by the links you provided. People aren't going to restaurants. Food producers who supply restaurants often have no choice but to destroy their product or let it rot.

Soon, there will be competition for the food that was not grown or created during the lock downs.

This is not. To the best of my knowledge, we've been shutting down production of food in plants after an outbreak occurs. Otherwise they were considered essential businesses.

Most of the other concerns in the articles you posted mention food security issues because people are losing their incomes. In the US, we're a service sector economy. Most of those jobs are screwed for the next year due to decreased demand for in person services like restaurants and hotels. So people will be less able to purchase food.

In any case, it doesn't really contradict ClearBlueLou. To ensure we have a consistent food supply, let's ensure our food production plants aren't COVID pits. Then they won't have to shut down.

 

[Tranquility]

This is supported by the links you provided. People aren't going to restaurants. Food producers who supply restaurants often have no choice but to destroy their product or let it rot.



This is not. To the best of my knowledge, we've been shutting down production of food in plants after an outbreak occurs. Otherwise they were considered essential businesses.

Most of the other concerns in the articles you posted mention food security issues because people are losing their incomes. In the US, we're a service sector economy. Most of those jobs are screwed for the next year due to decreased demand for in person services like restaurants and hotels. So people will be less able to purchase food.

OK. We'll have plenty of food. Nothing to worry about!

Again, we'll see.

 

[florduh]

OK. We'll have plenty of food. Nothing to worry about!

Again, we'll see.

No, there's still plenty to worry about. If we all want meat in the grocery stores, let's figure out how to stop outbreaks in meat processing plants. Then they won't need to shut down. I don't know what the alternative is. Forcing people to work in known COVID pits?

 

[Tranquility]

No, there's still plenty to worry about. If we all want meat in the grocery stores, let's figure out how to stop outbreaks in meat processing plants. Then they won't need to shut down. I don't know what the alternative is. Forcing people to work in known COVID pits?

Unless you found a way for people to live without working, probably yes.

If you have found a way that changes all of human history, I'd be glad to hear it.

Robots, maybe?

What's the figuring we're missing? You see, that's part of the problem. People thinking there's some magical solution we haven't figured out yet that if we put it into effect everything will be OK. Except, we've been in places like this before and the only way ever found to get out is to get to work.

As one wrote centuries ago to every thing, there is a season (Turn, turn, turn ):

The words of the Teacher, a the son of David, king in Jerusalem:

“Futility of futilities,” says the Teacher, “futility of futilities! Everything is futile!”

What does a man gain from all his labor, at which he toils under the sun?

Generations come and generations go, but the earth remains forever.

The sun rises and the sun sets; it hurries back to where it arose.

Blowing southward, then turning northward, round and round the wind swirls, ever returning on its course.

All the rivers flow into the sea, yet the sea is never full; to the place from which the streams come, there again they flow.

All things are wearisome, more than one can describe; the eye is not satisfied with seeing, nor the ear content with hearing.

What has been is what will be, and what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.

Is there a case where one can say, “Look, this is new”? It has already existed in the ages before us.

There is no remembrance of those who came before, and those to come will not be remembered by those who follow after.

 

[florduh]

Unless you found a way for people to live without working, probably yes.

If you have found a way that changes all of human history, I'd be glad to hear it.

Ummmm... sure? Keeping in mind that there's no broad government shutdown of meat packing plants... we only shut them down after an outbreak... we could provide rapid testing and tracing for the workers. We're testing basketball and baseball players multiple times per week, so it is possible. If food is more important than circuses. Off the top of my head, that's one solution.

Except, we've been in places like this before and the only way ever found to get out is to get to work.

I'll be sure to tell the hundreds of thousands of unemployed service sector workers in Florida, they better get out there and start serving tourists who aren't here, and won't be for the foreseeable future. Problem solved.

 

[EmDeemo]

Unless you found a way for people to live without working, probably yes.

If you have found a way that changes all of human history, I'd be glad to hear it.

Robots, maybe?

All youre talking about here is money. You dont need to look at changing all of human history, but just HOW OTHER COUNTRIES DEAL WITH THIS.

Richest economy on earth and you think this is financially totally impossible other than just sending every one back to work.

You really need to do a bit of creative, obvious thinking here, it really isnt rocket science.

EDIT: Anybody else get the impression, reading this, that the writer hasnt lost anyone close to him due to covid?

Coronavirus: Is the UK in a better position than we think?

Coronavirus: Is the UK in a better position than we think?

The negative headlines come thick-and-fast, but there are also signs the UK is on top of the virus.

www.bbc.co.uk

Aberdeen has gone back into Lockdown...

Coronavirus: Aberdeen goes into lockdown as Covid cluster grows

Coronavirus: Aberdeen goes into lockdown as Covid cluster grows

Travel restrictions are in force, households cannot meet inside and bars and restaurants have been ordered to close.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[EmDeemo]

Facebook removes Trump's 'Covid misinformation' post

Facebook and Twitter restrict Trump accounts over 'harmful' virus claim

The social networks say a post of a TV interview Mr Trump gave contained Covid-19 "misinformation".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[ClearBlueLou]

Ummmm... sure? Keeping in mind that there's no broad government shutdown of meat packing plants... we only shut them down after an outbreak... we could provide rapid testing and tracing for the workers. We're testing basketball and baseball players multiple times per week, so it is possible. If food is more important than circuses. Off the top of my head, that's one solution.

Saw in the news today that Disney “lost” $5b by closing Disney World...
I kinda (don’t) love that...if my customers don’t show up, don’t make appointments, I don’t get to count that as a “loss”. I’m a *small* business, I don’t get to write magic numbers off my taxes.

All youre talking about here is money. You dont need to look at changing all of human history, but just HOW OTHER COUNTRIES DEAL WITH THIS.

Richest economy on earth and you think this is financially totally impossible other than just sending every one back to work.

You really need to do a bit of creative, obvious thinking here, it really isnt rocket science.

EDIT: Anybody else get the impression, reading this, that the writer hasnt lost anyone close to him due to covid?

You offer good advice, but I doubt any creative thinking will occur as a result: the point of the exercise is to excoriate ‘the usual suspects‘ - in this case, the imaginary leftists.

 

[vtac]

I think we're all sick of the politicization of this pandemic. Can we please make a real effort to stop turning this into the Red vs Blue thread?

Yes it's hard to find news articles that don't get into politics, especially with the way things are with a certain world power. That's one of the reasons we've made allowances for more political discussion than usual in this thread. We've even been pretty civil about it, so thanks for that. Enough is enough though. This is a deadly issue affecting the entire world. Twisting it into US vs THEM doesn't seem to be helping. Unless you're a career politician maybe.

It would be nice if we could have some more focus on science (read: not politics masquerading as science).

Here's an eye-opening take from Dr. Michael Mina, MD, PhD who is an Assistant Professor of Epidemiology at Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health and a core member of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics (CCDD). He is additionally an Assistant Professor in Immunology and Infectious Diseases at HSPH and Associate Medical Director in Clinical Microbiology (molecular diagnostics) in the Department of Pathology at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School.

Probably the kind of person the world should be listening to in a pandemic.

The U.S. government has spent billions of dollars supporting attempts to develop vaccines and therapeutics. “Developing a good vaccine is very difficult to do,” he points out. “It’s a crapshoot that may or may not work. We’re putting billions more into developing therapeutics [treatments for COVID-19] which is really, really difficult.” With rapid testing, by contrast, “We have solutions, sitting in front of us right now, that are cheaper, would be much quicker to build, and much less risky to actually introduce and roll out. And the only thing standing in the way is that there just doesn't seem to be the will to bring a public-health tool to market.”

Mina suggests that we should be looking into low-cost test strips that can be taken daily at home and give results in 15 minutes. He says that they would be effective in telling people when they are infectious so they could know precisely when to stay home and not infect others. Apparently one of the main hurdles is the FDA requiring that such tests are much more sensitive than they need to be and that they automatically report the results to the department of health.

Failing the Coronavirus-Testing Test

Michael Mina maintains a new testing regimen could end the COVID-19 pandemic—in three weeks.

www.harvardmagazine.com

 

[EmDeemo]

Coronavirus: France records two-month high in cases

Coronavirus: France records two-month high in cases

Spain has also recorded its highest number of daily coronavirus cases in months.

www.bbc.co.uk

"France has recorded its highest number of daily coronavirus infections in more than two months.

Figures released on Wednesday showed 1,695 new cases within 24 hours.

With more than 30,000 deaths, France has the third-highest death toll in Europe, behind the UK and Italy."

"On Wednesday, Spain reported its highest number of new cases since it began easing lockdown restrictions in June, with 1,772 infections."

 

[florduh]

Saw in the news today that Disney “lost” $5b by closing Disney World...

Right, "lost" is a little different than "made less than expected", to me anyway. Employees there have been asking to be regularly tested. This makes sense to me. They're regularly interacting with thousands of people per day, many of whom will presumably be flying home to different parts of the country. Disney' Labor department responded that COVID tests often provide false negatives. So they provide a false sense of security. That's why they won't do them. Meanwhile, at Disney World, the NBA's "bubble" has been using them with great success.

I've heard from people working there that they've effectively stopped temperature screening employees as well. Now, they're on the "honor system". Don't come to work if you have a fever. Except, low paid workers who need to feed their families are going to try to come to work no matter what. I'd be pretty pissed if I were a guest at Disney, getting my temperature checked every time I enter a park when their employees are exempt.

Also, while they're opened, only a small percentage of their furloughed workforce has been called back. So there's still 30,000 plus Disney workers in Orlando who will be trying to survive on Florida's $250 per week unemployment benefit. And that's just at Disney. Orlando's economy depends on people flying in to visit those parks. And the parks are seeing maybe 10% of the traffic they usually would at that time of year. So there's not really 30,000 extra jobs lying around in that area.

 

[Tranquility]

It is therapeutics that may win the battle; for wealthy countries.
Designer antibodies could battle COVID-19 before vaccines arrive

...
Kyratsous says even if monoclonal antibodies don’t beat vaccines to the finish line, they still might have a role to play against COVID-19. “We’re going to need both approaches in the long run,” Kyratsous says. Vaccines are rarely 100% effective, and many people may decline a vaccine or not skip immunization for other reasons. What’s more, he notes, the elderly or people who are immune compromised may not mount robust immune responses after being vaccinated.
Supplies of monoclonal antibodies may be limited, however, in part because of modest investment. Operation Warp Speed, for example, has committed $8 billion to six different COVID-19 vaccines; for monoclonals, the government has invested about $750 million, much of it in Regeneron, which will produce somewhere between 70,000 and 300,000 doses before it even has efficacy data. Lilly says it will have 100,000 doses by the end of the year.
If the antibodies work, a study from the Duke University Margolis Center for Health Policy estimates the United States alone could require nearly 40 million doses next year. But no one knows how far those doses would stretch, says Janet Woodcock, who is on leave from running the drug evaluation and research division of the Food and Drug Administration to lead Warp Speed’s therapeutic effort. “Unlike with vaccines, it is hard to project the number of treatment courses that will be available,” Woodcock says. Prevention, which would be a single intramuscular shot, requires less product than the intravenous infusions used in treatment, she notes, but the amount needed depends on a person’s weight.
Although how to prioritize vaccine distribution has already sparked extensive debate, no such discussion has yet taken place about monoclonal antibodies. But DOJ acknowledged the supply concerns on 23 July, giving the six companies that had petitioned it the green light to share production information.
Regeneron is not part of that group, but Kyratsous is optimistic about meeting the need. “The good thing with some of these biologics is you can ramp up production fairly fast,” he says. Nirula agrees. “If we have success in these clinical trials, we will have a lot of drug available,” he says.
The cost of monoclonals, especially for the higher doses needed for treatment, could split the world into the haves and have-nots. “It’s unlikely that that treatment will get down to a price point in the near future that it would be easily affordable globally,” says Seth Berkley, who leads Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and also heads an international COVID-19 vaccine effort.
...

------------------------
Edit:

On a side note and as a real question (Please treat it as such.) what should I as an employer do?

We are an "essential" but small business. We have an employee who has just left on vacation to a yearly family reunion in another state. (In this case VA.) While we follow social distancing rules and do enhanced cleaning, most of us work in our own offices away from others and masks are not required unless we have a client in the office or otherwise are going to be close to people for any period of time.

When he gets back in two weeks, what should be required?

Nothing? Testing? Mask? Temp check? Quarantine? Who pays for it?

 

[510MOD]

------------------------
Edit:

On a side note and as a real question (Please treat it as such.) what should I as an employer do?

We are an "essential" but small business. We have an employee who has just left on vacation to a yearly family reunion in another state. (In this case VA.) While we follow social distancing rules and do enhanced cleaning, most of us work in our own offices away from others and masks are not required unless we have a client in the office or otherwise are going to be close to people for any period of time.

When he gets back in two weeks, what should be required?

Nothing? Testing? Mask? Temp check? Quarantine? Who pays for it?

Mandatory 2 week quarantine is what my employer requested and I happily obliged. I would feel like a complete ass knowing I went to FL and brought COVID-19 back to my office where some coworkers may not be as healthy as I am. Shit, I may find out my health may not be so great when I finally do get it. I am definitely not looking to catch it. My office also requires at all times and we also have our own individual office spaces. Not too hard to follow for most. Well except the whole state of FL apparently. I was really only in Lake Worth, Lauderdale and Sarasota but finding masks wearing patrons was almost like playing where's Waldo.

All office jobs should be able to accommodate remote work requirements. If not you are likely a slave to a place that does not care about you as an employee and I wish you the best.

 

[florduh]

When he gets back in two weeks, what should be required?

Nothing? Testing? Mask? Temp check? Quarantine? Who pays for it?

That's tough. Temp checks aren't really any kind of guarantee. I think they're somewhat effective en masse, but there's no guarantee for any individual person. I don't know what testing turnaround looks like in your area. It's all over the place here. The best I've heard is one week. But most have been 2+ weeks. Someone had a similar situation here. Wanted to get tested after a trip. Still hasn't heard back 3 weeks later.

If it were me, I'd probably still talk to the employee and recommend getting one. Just to be safe for everyone else in the office. I'm assuming working at home for a week or so isn't an option? If that's the case, the precautions you're already taking will provide a significant degree of protection. But there is still a risk. That's a long flight to VA, locked in a steel tube with strangers.

This is where the cheap rapid tests @vtac posted about would really come in handy.

Well except the whole state of FL apparently.

In my corner of Floriduh, it's gotten a little better. For the past month, I don't think I've ran into anyone at a grocery store maskless. The scarier thing is restaurants with indoor seating. So long as you're at a table or the bar, you're allowed to take off your mask. And you better believe that central air is blasting in August.

I take your point though. Anyone travelling here should definitely lay low for a bit after returning home.