Child birth is gross and I think very ugly

Deleted Member 1643

Well-Known Member
In YOUR lifetime? Not a chance even under the most pessimistic guesses. (I mean, calculations.)

Maybe so, but already miss frozen lakes in the wintertime, don't you? Not too fond of flooding every time another "storm of the century" strikes either (currently about twice per year). We're all feeling the effects now, just like they said we would in 1979. There's no longer a need for calculations to know that something's terribly wrong. Sadly, the most pessimistic "guesses" also seem to be the most accurate.

Are you talking about your children's or your children's children's lifetime? If so, isn't it gross and very ugly?

That would be selfish, not gross. There's plenty of concern to go around - for @His_Highness' new grandchild (congratulations) and all the other new grandchildren of the world. How do you suppose they'll judge us? (Some are already suing.)
 

His_Highness

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king
There's plenty of concern to go around - for @His_Highness' new grandchild (congratulations) and all the other new grandchildren of the world. How do you suppose they'll judge us? (Some are already suing.)

Thx!

My guess is that judgement will be dependent on which side of the wealth distribution curve the kids are on...... Sure hope we amass enough money to buy them a decent degree and a huge yacht to live on when the land mass becomes "precious".
 

Tranquility

Well-Known Member
Maybe so, but already miss frozen lakes in the wintertime, don't you? Not too fond of flooding every time another "storm of the century" strikes either (currently about twice per year). We're all feeling the effects now, just like they said we would in 1979. There's no longer a need for calculations to know that something's terribly wrong. Sadly, the most pessimistic "guesses" also seem to be the most accurate.
Not quite. The 1979 Charney report predicted a temperature rise (by 2030 if trends continued):
When it is assumed that the CO2 content of the atmosphere is doubled and statistical thermal equilibrium is achieved, the more realistic of the modeling efforts predict a global surface warming of between 2°C and 3.
That leaves us with 5 decades of the increased rate of warming per decade or between .4C-.6C. The real rate of increase is (https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-us-and-global-temperature) between 0.29 to 0.46°F per decade since 1979. The ratio of C to F is 1C = 1.8F. If we take the lowest rise predicted it is about .72°F.

In other words, the lowest temperature change per decade predicted is more than one and a half times the greatest amount observed.
 

ClearBlueLou

unbearably light in the being....
So, if wealth were distributed more fairly, the world could support a larger population of humans at an adequate standard of living without threatening the environmental conditions upon which we all depend?

How about, ‘if wealth were more equitably distributed, *choice* would be a more realistic factor’?

Of course, that adequate standard of living probably means an end to our collective fantasy about being apex predators, along with driving to our important jobs every day and jetting around the globe at the drop of a hat.

Our ‘fantasy’ of being apex predators has plenty of reality to it, mostly entertained by those born wealthy and/or positioned for effective predation. It’s as real as the farcical notion of “bootstraps” is false

Still, it's worth a try, like our Green New Deal. But can we bring everyone, everywhere on board in time? Clearly, people need to be prepared for such comprehensive change.

The problem with aspirational efforts like the Green New Deal and Agenda 21 is that the apex-predator crew rightly see them as threats to their continuous, unhampered predation. ALL politics is local; the personal *is* political, and the political has become VERY personal...

Some of us are working toward that in our individual lives by not eating animals, switching to alternative energy sources, etc. Showing others that it's not so bad, they might even like it.

I acknowledge the privilege that allows you to not merely make those choices but make them work for you in your life: those choices are simply not available to far too many people

Maybe something else we can consider is forgoing families, at least those of us for whom it's not a hardship. (Don't forget, we can always foster or adopt to satisfy some of our needs and those of children who already exist.) While not required, doing so is entirely consistent with those other changes some of us have already made.

“Family” is not forego-able: we aren’t manufactured products, we’re tribal primates, and we go insane in isolation from others, as is proved by the Internet, large cities, the destruction of real neighborhoods, and by the questionable value of predator relationships, just to name a few. Redefine family, by all means, but attempting to eradicate it is a surer doom than our current mess

And if the Green New Deal (or whatever you have in mind) works, people will be happier. Happy people make babies. How many more billion will it take before our problems return, even if everyone in the world lives simply?

Miserable people also have babies, more of them than do happy people; if we can’t exercise our vaunted mental capacity to reduce and control our numbers - as individuals - nature will do it for us
 
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Tranquility

Well-Known Member
Miserable people also have babies, more of them than do happy people; if we can’t exercise our vaunted mental capacity to reduce and control our numbers - as individuals - nature will do it for us

Let me get the first poster out before we are inundated with political nonsense for the next couple of years:

vk4ir3kacpv01.jpg
 

Deleted Member 1643

Well-Known Member
Not quite. The 1979 Charney report predicted a temperature rise (by 2030 if trends continued):
When it is assumed that the CO2 content of the atmosphere is doubled and statistical thermal equilibrium is achieved, the more realistic of the modeling efforts predict a global surface warming of between 2°C and 3.
That leaves us with 5 decades of the increased rate of warming per decade or between .4C-.6C. The real rate of increase is (https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-us-and-global-temperature) between 0.29 to 0.46°F per decade since 1979. The ratio of C to F is 1C = 1.8F. If we take the lowest rise predicted it is about .72°F.

In other words, the lowest temperature change per decade predicted is more than one and a half times the greatest amount observed.

Knowing full well that dueling citations will convince no one...

The First Climate Model Turns 50, And Predicted Global Warming Almost Perfectly

"According to our estimate, a doubling of the CO2 content in the atmosphere has the effect of raising the temperature of the atmosphere (whose relative humidity is fixed) by about 2 °C."

What we've seen from the pre-industrial revolution until today matches that extremely well. We haven't doubled CO2, but we have increased it by about 50%. Temperatures, going back to the first measurements of accurate global temperatures in the 1880s, have increased by nearly (but not quite) 1 °C.

https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Fstartswithabang%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F03%2Fgiss_feb16-datagraver.jpg

Monthly global surface temperatures (land and ocean) from NASA for the period 1880 to February 2016, expressed in departures from the 1951-1980 average. The red line shows the 12-month running average.

Admittedly not an area of expertise (and expertise would certainly help), but it looks like we just need to go back a few more decades. Also the climate model referred to is that of Manabe and Wetherald from 1967.

Catchy title, and the article is from Forbes, which isn't exactly known for spouting leftist propaganda.

Seriously - don't you long for the flat portion of the curve, lost forever? Or feel alarm at the rapid rise?
 
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Tranquility

Well-Known Member
Knowing full well that dueling citations will convince no one...

The First Climate Model Turns 50, And Predicted Global Warming Almost Perfectly



Admittedly not an area of expertise (and expertise would certainly help), but it looks like we just need to go back a few more decades.

Catchy title, and the article is from Forbes, which isn't exactly known for spouting leftist propaganda. Also the climate model referred to is that of Manabe and Wetherald from 1967.

Seriously - don't you long for the flat portion of the curve, lost forever? Or feel alarm at the rapid rise?
There are multiple climate models that have different assumptions in each. None of them are very good at predicting things without help. (Like the hockey stick adjustment.) While Forbes is either center or center right, depending on which source you look to for a bias claim, Ethan Siegel seems to be a True Believer in the field and some call him an alarmist.

But, I addressed the claim the 1979 Chaney report that brought together all the theories was a good predictor yet was very wrong--even with the multiple caveats throughout that report. And, if the first climate model was so good at predicting Global Warming, why have they updated the model so many times since then? Especially when current models cannot be claimed to predict temperatures almost perfectly, it seems like staying with an old faithful that works would be a better choice.

I also have no expertise on the matter and have only read a couple of books and many articles on it so admit I'm already out of my depth on truly understanding all the moving parts. An interesting story, for those interested, are on the politics of the underlying data itself. Each temperature data set can come up with different results when run through the models. The basic data everything is based on is adjusted in multiple ways. I find it hard to believe a model based on data guessed at from far further back's temperatures recorded by a night watchman at the factory who didn't care at the beginning of the industrial revolution does better than a model based on data obtained by multiple methods including a network of satellites. I do agree we're probably at the point of dueling citations that convince no one so stop here.


THANOS 2020--Be the change you're hoping for.
 

arb

Semi shaved ape
My penis 2020............you should write in "My penis 2020" on every ballot in america.
Our slogan will be..........."we are tighter than dickskin"
We shall rise together in a nationwide effort to rub one out and heal.
I am accepting donations and volunteers at this time..............MY PENIS 2020!!!!
 

Madri-Gal

Child Of The Revolution
We are all carnivores in my family and that includes every generation of in-laws and out-laws that I know of. We have all had our children born in hospitals since hospitals were a thing. And.......

I am over the moon to report that yesterday my second grandchild was born without issue while I was taking care of my grandson so that everyone else could be at the birth.

In this house......It's a glorious day to be a selfish group of re-producers that greedily uses the resources the earth provides to continue doing the same.

Another way to say it is...... just like the Grinch my heart has expanded exponentially......
Congratulations on the arrival of your newest grandchild. I'm hoping both Mother and Child are well. You must be thrilled, and I'm thrilled for you.
 

Deleted Member 1643

Well-Known Member
Does your penis golf? Could not vote for another golfer in good conscience.

This might be a good time to apologize. Sorry to give unintended offense. Should have known some would take their right to reproduce seriously, even in such a ridiculous thread.

The discussion has been helpful, thanks. Glad to walk back those first provocative posts but still looking forward to another decade or so of blissful celibacy.

Come to think of it, know a penis that really isn't doing anything. @arb, does yours need a running mate? Of course, it might get more votes with a vagina on the ticket...
 
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