I think this is turning less into a discussion and more of a log of my attempts. I'll probably start a new thread in DIY. I already started writing this one so I'll give the last update on the PID. I probably won't update until I get new hardware because I managed to kill the RPi yesterday, but once the new boards come in I can post an update. A faster Pi or an Arduino should improve the polling rate and help increase the stability of the system. Can set timed intervals and get better I and D readings, although overshoot isn't that big of a deal and P reacts pretty quickly anyway.
Hopefully graphs show up right, tried to get them all together. This is from all the data I've collected testing. The beginning is oldest, so less tuning and less power. The last 25% is from a day or two ago. The major spikes are doing straight draws with no load (so maximum airflow).
I was trying to figure out why the T120 darlington pair works and the mosfet didn't and while troubleshooting I most likely sent 19V through the Pi. I was being careless and was sticking multimeter probes everywhere to check the gate voltage. I think the next step is to try with a better mosfet rated to 60v 30a, but I think more likely is my powersupply to the PI wasn't giving enough power or the mosfet was way out of spec. I'll post all the graphs I've gotten up until now. I've managed to get the system pretty stable, but even at 19v (which pulls close to 20W) I can still overwhelm the heater. At this point, the PID is only really useful for the P control to act as a limiter/thermostat when idle and pump full juice when hitting. Still the recovery is much better than before but I don't have full control over the hit without setting temp way above my actual target (250 gives me around 220 after temp drop, better than the sub 200 before).
I ordered a variable switching power supply rated for 60v 5a, but I may start going down the DIY route and build a custom dual zone core (1 for conditioning and 1 for smoothing). The idea of driving over 20W without a secured TC and no safety mechanism scares me a bit. While I only ever run it while I'm using it and shut it off after using it, for longer sessions and long term use, this isn't really ideal. I also need to setup a static discharge for the TC. If you look at some of the graphs the initial temp is stuck and after I ground the TC, it recovers. It shouldn't be hard to setup a simple check if the temp is static between iterations to quickly shutoff heat and ground the TC with a transistor driven by gpio to reset it.