Corona Vaping
- Thread starter MegaMan2k
- Start date
vapirtoo
Well-Known Member
OK folks, from the Corona epic center in America , let me share some observations.
I'm right next to Kennedy airport in Queens county NYC and the reality here is amazing.
Our hospitals are all overrun with severe Corona cases and people with little or no symptoms are still harassing 911 to be tested.
My 30 yr. old son stopped driving for Uber about two weeks ago, but had lost his sense of taste and smell.
I began to feel weak and weird whenever I vaped, but did not pay it any mind. I now believe that my son infected the whole house with a very mild form of the virus and hopefully we all now have an immunity.
You cannot get tested unless you have a temp., endless dry cough or difficulty breathing.
NYers are tired of confinement and are out in the parks and bike ways in droves. I had to change my bike route from bike paths to streets with cars due to the population densities on the paths. I held my breath every time I rode past a group of people. I did not have a face mask, but took a shower as soon as I got home.
I believe we need to see the crowded ERs. and suffering patients to remind us how serious this is.
The amount of people out and close to each other due to the warm weather was ridiculous.
WTF, I was out there too.
Please be safe, young and old are dying.
I'm right next to Kennedy airport in Queens county NYC and the reality here is amazing.
Our hospitals are all overrun with severe Corona cases and people with little or no symptoms are still harassing 911 to be tested.
My 30 yr. old son stopped driving for Uber about two weeks ago, but had lost his sense of taste and smell.
I began to feel weak and weird whenever I vaped, but did not pay it any mind. I now believe that my son infected the whole house with a very mild form of the virus and hopefully we all now have an immunity.
You cannot get tested unless you have a temp., endless dry cough or difficulty breathing.
NYers are tired of confinement and are out in the parks and bike ways in droves. I had to change my bike route from bike paths to streets with cars due to the population densities on the paths. I held my breath every time I rode past a group of people. I did not have a face mask, but took a shower as soon as I got home.
I believe we need to see the crowded ERs. and suffering patients to remind us how serious this is.
The amount of people out and close to each other due to the warm weather was ridiculous.
WTF, I was out there too.
Please be safe, young and old are dying.
uncanni
Well-Known Member
That's the problem with a place like NYC: you can't go anywhere away from other people unless you drive. This is one of the only times when it pays to live in a small town in the middle of nowhere. I feel very sad about what's going on in the super-crowded urban centers across the nation.
I understand what's happening in the ERs and hospitals, so I don't need to see images of others suffering to know what's going on right now. I'm keeping track of the numbers of cases and deaths in the US and in my state, and that's more than enough to keep me seriously aware of what's going on.
vapviking
Old & In the Way
The tracked numbers are dramatic, and in terms of shear numbers of people (in New York) who have died fairly accurate, we can assume. We also have to bear in mind the number of cases confirmed in no way indicates the number of people infected, which is a big fat unknown.
And so we hear that in terms of percentages, we can't get an accurate ratio of deaths out of number of infected individuals. Known as the "missing denominator".
Of course, in a couple weeks' time I have become one of the leading authorities on this whole subject, mind ya.....
@vapirtoo I feel ya there. My daughter and 2 grand daughters are in Brooklyn. The kids have definitely been exposed to their dad, now positive, and likely brought it to their mom. "Outdoors" is a precious commodity there as well. They are 1 block from the beautiful Brooklyn Botanic Garden, which is shut down.
You don't miss your water til the well runs dry.
uncanni
Well-Known Member
Some folks don't miss a healthy planet until the pandemics come...
TommyDee
Vaporitor
We do know the denominator to a much better degree now that we have history. I am using 1:100 to 1:200 infected will die. That is 1/2 - 1%. Therefore, if the denominator is based on death rates, you have at this moment 30,000 dead as of midday March 26th. That means 1,500,000-3,000,000 are already infected.
This is simple math with the data we already have. That also means that 1 in 3,000-6,000 people you meet is infected. These are the sobering numbers your government is holding back.
I know liking posts like this is hard to do because of this new reality. But if this makes sense to you, please like this post to know you understand.
This is simple math with the data we already have. That also means that 1 in 3,000-6,000 people you meet is infected. These are the sobering numbers your government is holding back.
I know liking posts like this is hard to do because of this new reality. But if this makes sense to you, please like this post to know you understand.
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vapviking
Old & In the Way
I can agree that the number is likely very high, but I would need to see a lot more data and processing, because while we have a few months' history in some locales we do not have voluminous trustworthy world-wide data.
I was talking specifically about New York. Cites about New York City infection rate, anyone?
This is the first time I've ever seen anyone solicit likes in the forums...
I was talking specifically about New York. Cites about New York City infection rate, anyone?
This is the first time I've ever seen anyone solicit likes in the forums...
TommyDee
Vaporitor
Same calculation @vapviking - number confirmed dead in NY or NYC over population of NY or NYC. Hot spots will have much higher rates than the 1/2 - 1%.
I am certainly not gathering likes of course, just wanted to know if this logic makes sense to others. There are many posts of shared things that are of a somber nature and I find myself refraining from liking them. I should see that more as an acknowledgement but I don't due to the semantics of the click.
I am certainly not gathering likes of course, just wanted to know if this logic makes sense to others. There are many posts of shared things that are of a somber nature and I find myself refraining from liking them. I should see that more as an acknowledgement but I don't due to the semantics of the click.
vapviking
Old & In the Way
Okay, so it turns out we're onto the apples/oranges thing.
I was talking about the rate of deaths from the denominator group "all those infected", or "What are the odds of dying if one becomes infected?" (forget, for the moment the break-outs of risk groups within the sample).
Your denominator group became "entire population," or, "What are the odds of any one person dying from this virus?"
Both are valid questions.
I think this time around, on this type of stats, we shouldn't be arm-chair quarterbacking or speculating with 'simple math and basic logic', that it's a bit more involved than that. I like and trust the science end of this, and I see they're working they're butts off on it. I defer.
Sorry to be snarky about the likes thing, I understand you.
I was talking about the rate of deaths from the denominator group "all those infected", or "What are the odds of dying if one becomes infected?" (forget, for the moment the break-outs of risk groups within the sample).
Your denominator group became "entire population," or, "What are the odds of any one person dying from this virus?"
Both are valid questions.
I think this time around, on this type of stats, we shouldn't be arm-chair quarterbacking or speculating with 'simple math and basic logic', that it's a bit more involved than that. I like and trust the science end of this, and I see they're working they're butts off on it. I defer.
Sorry to be snarky about the likes thing, I understand you.
uncanni
Well-Known Member
I haven't heard the death rate for covid 19 that low as what you say: it is 2.3% in China and 7.2 in Italy (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667) Clearly, Italy got hit especially hard, but I've consistently heard a death rate of 2-3% for covid 19.
I'd say a lot of information is being held back to prevent people from panicking and going on another toilet paper bender. My pulmonologist friend says that everyone would be slightly safer wearing a mask to go grocery shopping... Nothing fancy, she says, just a surgical paper mask.
TommyDee
Vaporitor
The percentages reported is high in that infected cases are not properly accounted for. I am using Germany as a norm only in that they took this the most seriously early on. Their numbers are likely closer to reality when the dust settles. The USA is not even counting affected anymore so that denominator is not forthcoming. Definitely time to start looking at more reliable numbers. Dead and populations are easy numbers to parse.
@uncanni - if 85% of the infected are not accounted for, the percentages will be high because the numerator is too low. I am reversing the way to look at infected by dead over population. The more infected in the count, the lower the mortality percentage.
@uncanni - if 85% of the infected are not accounted for, the percentages will be high because the numerator is too low. I am reversing the way to look at infected by dead over population. The more infected in the count, the lower the mortality percentage.
vapviking
Old & In the Way
I'd say there's a fair amount of confusion right here, regardless.
For example, 7% of the Italian population has not perished, folks.
Without any personal ill-will, I'm gonna bow out of here for a bit, it's ball of confusion.
Love to the world.
TommyDee
Vaporitor
Correct, 7% of verified infections, not population. Now why would Germans die at a much lower rate than Italians? They don't. That means there are countless infections not accounted for in Italy. But the numbers can give you an idea of the unaccounted infected.
On a statistical basis, the lowest percentage of dead v. infected is likely the true number. We are already having resolved cases that will never hit the infected count. The count of dead is off only by miss-diagnosis to give statistical accuracy. Population counts are also hard and fast within a margin of error. Now that there is history, we are much more aware of where this thing is going.
On a statistical basis, the lowest percentage of dead v. infected is likely the true number. We are already having resolved cases that will never hit the infected count. The count of dead is off only by miss-diagnosis to give statistical accuracy. Population counts are also hard and fast within a margin of error. Now that there is history, we are much more aware of where this thing is going.
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ginolicious
Well-Known Member
All places are only testing the very ill. The numbers are skewed. Also. I was reading British newspapers. And they found a shipment of 5,000 urns to Wuhan. If China only had 3,000 deaths nation wide. Why does Wuhan need 5000 urns? I suggest their numbers are being forged. No different then them trying to silence Dr. Li.
ginolicious
Well-Known Member
I haven’t vaped since last Saturday. Cause well this bullshit has me scared as shit with fibrosis lol. But I’m thinking I need to vape tonight some solid CBD.
uncanni
Well-Known Member
Yes, I'm aware that there is a severe shortage of medical supplies and tests everywhere.
uncanni
Well-Known Member
An extremely helpful discussion!! They make so much sense: Korea has been through this kind of thing before, and so they knew how to be prepared.
Full of excellent advice and information. Thanks so much for posting it.
DazVapesNow
Member
Scary stuff. perhaps I’ll have to take a forced T break to be safe - partner works as nurse at hospital so household isn’t isolated
ginolicious
Well-Known Member
It’s probably for the best. I have been doing the same. Even though it helps with my sanity vaping. And I could really use it. But I don’t need to be in a hospital. Every day I lose my mind. And it’s only getting worse for me mentally.
Siebter
Less soul, more mind
May I ask why? What exactly are you afraid of?
We all are concerned, we all try to follow the rules as good as we can (well, most of us), but I'd say the mindset for this should be well balanced, more on the calm side of things, rather cautious than panicking. I see you struggling more and more every day.
Stay safe.
Can you do medibles mate? Where abouts in the world are you?